583
FXUS65 KPUB 101632
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1032 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to increase through the week, with the
  potential for Heat Advisories across portions of southern
  Colorado Friday through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each
  afternoon over and near the higher terrain.

- Increasing available moisture early next week leading to better
  coverage of afternoon showers and storms along with slightly
  cooler temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The latest mid-level analysis indicates a deep ridge with its axis
extending from the AZ-CA border northward across Nevada. East of
this feature, southeastern Colorado is in a very dry north-northwest
mid-level flow while a pocket of mid-level moisture moves into
northwestern Colorado. At the surface, high pressure is in place
across much of the state with a weak low over the eastern
Plains. The latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates
that SE Colorado skies are clear with some mid-level clouds
filtering in from the NW, aligned with the aforementioned mid-
level moisture. We were fortunate to get an upper air sounding
launched at 1352Z from our Incident Meteorologist on the Oak
Ridge Fire in Beulah in southwestern Pueblo County. The sounding
confirms dry air throughout the the column with little or no
instability and weak 0-6km shear. The sounding also came in with
a PWAT value of 0.57". Thus, the dry air in place early today
is confirmed. Temps are warming quickly this morning, already in
the 80s from the I-25 corridor eastward into the SE Plains and
in the 60s in the San Luis Valley.

This afternoon, the area will remain in a north-northwesterly mid-
level flow with increasing moisture filtering into central and south-
central Colorado into the evening. This will help contribute to the
development of isolated diurnal and terrain-driven showers and
thunderstorms, initially over the central Mountains and then
expanding to the San Luis Valley and along the I-25 corridor by
evening. Given the limited instability and weak shear in place, do
not have any concerns of severe weather today. Given relatively slow
motion of any showers and thunderstorms that develop, the Weather
Prediction Center has highlighted the San Luis Valley and
surrounding mountain ranges with a Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall. Thus, a localized, isolated threat of flash flooding
cannot be ruled out into the evening.  For the SE Plains, abundant
sunshine will help contribute to increasing heat across the region,
a trend that will continue into the weekend.

For temperatures, they are generally running around 3-5 degrees warm
for the I-25 corridor and eastward based on latest observation
trends. Thus, highs today have been been adjust upward 2-3
degrees for the I-25 corridor and eastward. Elsewhere, the NBM
seems to be doing fairly well with highs in the mid 80s in the
San Luis Valley and in the 60s across much of our higher
terrain. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
northerly flow aloft across the Rockies, with the large upper high and
heat dome centered across southwestern Nevada as a broad upper trough
persists across the Upper Great Lakes into the Central Conus. A weak
embedded wave within the northerly flow aloft is spreading clouds
across the southern I-25 Corridor and far southeast Plains early
this morning, with mostly clear skies across the rest of the region
at this time. Temperatures at 2 am are mainly in the 50s and 60s
across southern Colorado, save some 30s and 40s across the higher
terrain, with Grand Junction currently a rather warm 77F!

There are no big changes in the forecast through tonight, with dry
northerly flow persisting across the Rockies. There remains enough
moisture, with HREF data indicating mean CAPE of 200-500 J/kg across
the area, to work with the strong summer sunshine to support isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain this
afternoon, with a few possible storms moving south across high
mountain valleys and immediate adjacent plains late this afternoon
and early evening. Convection to be mainly high based with the potential
for gusty outflow winds with showers and storms, though can`t rule out
locally heavy rain and small hail associated with the strongest storms.
Further east, warming aloft looks to keep convection capped. Temperatures
to be at or slightly warmer than yesterday, with highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s expected across the Plains, with mainly 60s and 70s across the
higher terrain. Skies to clear overnight, with lows in the 50s and 60s
across the Plains and mainly in the 40s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Generally weak northerly flow remains progged across the Rockies through
the end of the work week, as the large upper high slowly slides east across
the Great Basin. The upper high is expected to be centered across Western
Colorado on Saturday and then slowly slides south and east into early next
week. Temperatures aloft continue to warm under the building ridge
with H7 temps of 18C-22C likely leading to highs in the mid 90s to the
lower 100s across the southeast Plains by Friday, with highs mainly in
the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, and in the 80s to lower 90s
across the high mountain valleys. With these well above seasonal temperatures
expected to continue through the weekend, there will be the potential of
seeing heat advisories across portions of southern Colorado Friday and into
the weekend. As for precipitation, there will be enough moisture to work
with the strong sunshine to continue to support afternoon showers over the
higher terrain, though with large scale subsidence under the heat dome,
there should be less coverage into the early weekend.

Latest model data continues to support more available moisture moving
into the Rockies within modest south to southwest flow aloft as the
upper high pushes south and east into early next week. This will
lead to increasing coverage of daily showers and storms, especially
over the higher terrain, for the late weekend into early next week.
With more moisture and convection, temperatures will slowly cool back
to near seasonal levels through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Northerly flow aloft will keep isolated to scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA over and near the higher terrain this afternoon
and early evening, with the best chances of convection
affecting the terminals being at ALS. If storms can move
off the higher terrain, gusty outflow winds will be
the main threats. Otherwise, VFR conditions with generally
light diurnal wind regimes will be the rule at COS, PUB
and ALS over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW