237
FXUS65 KPUB 121027
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
427 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Temperatures through the weekend with Heat Advisories in
  place across portions of southern Colorado.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each
  afternoon over and near the higher terrain.

- Increasing available moisture next week leading to better
  coverage of afternoon storms and cooling temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate north to northwest flow aloft across the Rockies, as the
large 597DM upper high slides east across the southern Great Basin
and a broad upper trough in in place across the Upper Great Lakes
into the Central Conus. Water vapor imagery is also indicating
minor embeddded waves diving down the back side of the trough
across the Northern Rockies and into the High Plains at this time.
These waves has kept convection ongoing across the eastern Colorado
Plains through the overnight hours, with KLAA indicating gusty winds
to 40 mph associated with a passing showers at 3 am.

Northerly flow aloft remains across the region through tonight, as
the upper high continues to slide east into the Western Colorado
tonight. Latest models continue to indicate another weak wave across
the Northern Rockies digging south and east across the Eastern Plains
this afternoon, along with enough moisture to work with strong solar
insolation, to support isolated to scattered showers and storms across
the all of south central and southeast Colorado this afternoon.
Convection continues to be high based, with the main storm threats being
gusty outflow winds and lightning, with enough potential instability and
shear across the southeast plains for a stronger storm to produce locally
severe wind gusts and small hail. Warm air aloft under the high continues
to push east across the Central Rockies, with highs today continuing
to warm a few more degrees from yesterday`s values with readings in the
mid 90s to lower 100`s expected across the southeast Plains, with mainly
70s and 80s across the higher terrain, save for 60s at the peaks. Could
see a few record highs tied or set across the area today, with current
records for COS of 98F in 1971, 105F at PUB in 1971 and 92F at ALS in
2020. With that said, current Heat Advisories for the urban areas of
eastern Fremont, El Paso and Pueblo counties remains on track from
10 am to 8 pm, with those needing to be outside needing to stay hydrated
through out the day.

Any convection wanes through the evening with temperatures slow to cool
through the overnight with lows mainly in the 60s across the Plains and
in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Saturday-Sunday...The upper high remains progged to be across the
Central Rockies through the weekend, with very warm air aloft (H7
temps of 18C to 22C) leading to very warm tempertures in the upper
90s to possibly around 110F, as some guidance indicates across the
southeast Plains this weekend. We have continued Heat Advisories
for eastern Fremont, El Paso, Pueblo, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa
counties both days, and have also added Crowley county. While we
can`t rule out isolated to scattered high based showers/storms, mainly
over the higher terrain, I did cut back NBM pops and increased NBM
temperatures through the weekend, with expected subsidence associated
with under the upper high.

Current records for the weekend are 100F in 1954 on Saturday and
96F in 2005 on Sunday at COS, 109F in 2003 on Saturday and 107F
in 2003 on Sunday at PUB and 93F in 2003 on Satuday and 93F in
2003 on Sunday at ALS. Time will tell how hot it will get,
however some guidance does indicate highs across the southeast
Plains getting close to the current statewide record high
temperature of 115F at John Martin Dam on July 20th of 2019.

Monday continues to be a transition day, as the upper high is progged
to slide south and west into the Great Basin through the middle of
next week. This will develop modest northwest flow aloft across the
region, and allowing for a slow increase in available moisture and
cooling temperatures areawide. NBM seems to be too aggressive with
Pops on Monday, though should continue to increasing coverage of
daily showers and storms through the rest of the work week. Highs on
Monday to remain above seasonal levels and with mid 90s to lower
100s still expected across the Plains. However, with the upper high
sliding south of the area and the expected increase in convection,
will see highs cooling back to near seasonal levels through the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS,
KPUB and KALS. Upper ridge of high pressure slowly moving across
the Great Basin will once again keep isolated to low-end
scattered convection mainly over the higher terrain from mid-day
Fri into the evening. Therefore, mentioned VCTS for KALS
23z-03z, and brief bouts of gusty outflow winds up to around 25
kts will be likely with any convection that develops. Did not
include convection mention for KCOS, but may have to be added in
further updates.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for COZ083>086.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ083>086-
089-093-095>098.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO/MW
AVIATION...MOORE