214
FXUS65 KPUB 141704
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues today, with Heat Advisories
  remaining in effect across our plains along and north of
  Highway 50.

- A Red Flag Warning for Dry Lightning remains in effect for
  the central mountains, along with Teller county.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected over
  and near the mountains each afternoon and evening, with
  chances for storms on the plains increasing from Tu- A Red
  Flag Warning for Dry Lightning is in effect for the central
  mountains, along with Teller county.esday onwards.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and continue through much
  of this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The latest mid-level analysis indicates a 500mb high and
thermal ridge centered over southern Colorado. This dominant
feature can also be seen via GOES-16 IR satellite, with the
anti-cyclonic flow of clouds rotating around Colorado this
morning. Aside from a few passing clouds, skies are clear this
morning. Another hot day is in store, with temperatures already
warming into the 90s along the I-25 corridor and SE Plains of
Colorado.

This afternoon and into evening, the mid-level thermal ridge will
begin to slowly retreat southward into northern New Mexico. Similar
to the last two days, the GFS RH time-height cross section indicates
that moisture aloft will be confined to the 500-250mb layer with
very dry air in the lower levels. With support from some weak mid-
level vort energy to provide forcing, hi-res models again support
the developed of isolated showers and thunderstorms initially over
higher terrain and the San Luis Valley this afternoon and then the
remainder of the area by mid-afternoon. While instability will be
mostly weak this afternoon (<500 J/kg), downdraft CAPE will once
again be in the 1000-1500 range west of the Front
Range/Wets/Sangres and in the 1500-2000 J/kg range from the
I-25 corridor eastward to the SE Plains. Thus, while
precipitation reaching the ground will be limited, virga with
enhanced downdrafts could once again lead to some strong wind
gusts to 50 mph. Considering how dry it is in the lower levels,
dry lightning is also a concern with thunderstorms as a Red
Flag Warning is in place for Lake/Chaffee/Teller counties.

For temperatures, the ongoing Heat Advisory still looks good with
HeatRisk values of 3 this afternoon for Pueblo/Colorado
Springs/Canon City and eastward temperatures warming above 105F for
counties along and north of US-50. Highs will range from around 105F
in the SE Plains to the triple digits along the I-25 corridor to the
lower 90s in the San Luis Valley. Higher terrain will see highs in
the 70s and 80s today. Given the heat, Colorado Springs is currently
forecasted to tie and possibly break their record high of 96F (2005)
today. Alamosa (93F in 2003) and Pueblo (107F in 2003) are currently
predicted to be a couple degrees below their records for highs
today. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Currently..

Water vapor imagery depicts the high pressure system over
southwestern Colorado this morning, with diminishing mid and upper-
level cloud cover over our area. Radar is clear this morning, and
any leftover gusty winds from overnight outflow boundaries have
weakened. Most plains locations are seeing westerly winds, with the
exception of El Paso County, where easterly winds have held on
through 2am at least. Temperatures are still mostly in the 60s and
70s on the plains, and 50s for mountain valleys as of 2 am, though
Pueblo is actually still at 81 degrees this hour. Dewpoints are dry,
mostly in the 30s and 40s across both the high country and our lower
elevations as well.

Today and Tonight..

Exceptionally hot and dry conditions are expected for today. This
will mean yet another Heat Advisory for our plains along and north
of Highway 50, along with the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for Dry
Lightning for Lake, Chaffee, and Teller counties. Fire starts and
Heat illness will be concerns across our area today! Near record
temperatures are expected for many locations this afternoon, with
temperatures up to 107 degrees possible across our plains. Please
take extra precautions to avoid heat illness today and please check
on loved ones and neighbors! The one possible relief we will see
from the heat is the potential for convective cloud cover this
afternoon, especially for the I-25 corridor. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area, with main
risks being lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph. We will
be very dry in the lower atmosphere, which will increase our risk
for dry lightning fire starts over the high country, especially for
our central mountains and Teller county. Storms today will likely
produce more gusty outflow winds than meaningful rainfall in many
locations, even outside of these areas. Our overall dryness should
help us to cool efficiently once the sun sets, but overnight lows
still look to remain around 5 degrees or so warmer than normal as we
head into the early morning hours of tomorrow, especially if we hang
onto a lot of mid and upper-level cloud cover through the overnight
hours.

Sunday, July 14th:
Alamosa: Record of 93 (2003), forecasted high of 90
Colorado Springs: Record of 96 (2005), forecasted high of 96
Pueblo: Record of 107 (2003), forecasted high of 104

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

No real big pattern change at the start of the period, with the
large upper ridge still in place across the region. This will
support another day of hot temperatures on Monday, with 100
degree temps appearing likely again over the plains. Current
forecast temperatures along with some variability to the extent
of the 700mb temps aren`t supporting the need for an additional
Heat Advisory at this time. Will keep a close eye on Monday
though as this could change with later forecasts. Similar precip
chances are expected, with any showers or storms mainly staying
confined to the higher terrain. Instability does look to be
limited, and should keep the risk of any widespread severe
weather low on this day.

Will see the upper ridge breakdown on Tuesday, as a cold front
moves across the area. This will help lower temps, with the
highest temps in the low to mid 90s likely over the plains.
During this time, instability will try to increase across the
plains, especially closer to the Colorado and Kansas border.
Given this increase in instability/moisture along with a higher
likelihood for stronger mid level energy to push overhead, will
see chances for strong to potentially severe storms increase
across the plains. By the middle part of this week, even cooler
temperatures are anticipated, that look to persist into the
weekend. An active and wetter pattern is appearing possible
during this time, with daily shower and thunderstorm development
expected across southern Colorado. While can`t rule out
stronger development, think the risk of heavy rains would be the
trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will mostly prevail across the terminals through the
TAF period as a ridge of high pressure aloft begins to slowly slide
south of the area. Much like the last two days, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon and evening,
bringing the threat of dry microbursts with gusts to 40-50kts. With
this in mind, have VCSH in the forecast for ALS after 19Z and VCTS
in the forecast for COS/PUB after 20Z with TEMPO groups for the
stronger wind gusts that are possible with downdrafts. Isolated
showers and storms will diminish by 03Z with light and variable
winds expected overnight. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-221.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...WOODRUM