Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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647 FXUS65 KPUB 062346 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 546 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorm winds are possible over the southeastern plains this afternoon - Meteorological critical fire weather conditions are expected over the San Luis Valley, the La Garitas, and the southern portion of the upper Arkansas River Valley, however fuels are not critical, therefore no fire weather products will be issued. - Rain showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday evening, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible. - Isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected Monday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows cumulus development across the higher terrain, and stretching from the Palmer Divide, eastward to Kiowa County. Radar is free and clear. Drier air is currently mixing eastward across the Plains with dewpoints falling. Temperatures are also on the hotter side, with 80s and 90s across the Plains. Rest of today...drier air continues to push eastward across the Plains, and most model guidance continues to show afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity remaining east in Kansas this afternoon where deeper moisture exists. The boundary that stretches from the Palmer Divide, eastward bares watching out near Kiowa County, where a few attempts to robust convection have sputtered. There could be one or two storms out that way. The other area to watch would be along the moisture boundary across Baca County. Model guidance continues to dry out our area, with convection east of the Kansas border into this evening. If storms can develop, elevated DCAPE will lead to a wind risk. Any storms that develop in our area will shift east into Kansas pretty quickly. Tonight...outflow from storms in Kansas will back westward advecting moisture back across the Plains overnight. A surface low is also forecast to develop, helping to further draw moisture back across the Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s is expected, with a few model guidance members having lower 60 dewpoint air near the Kansas border. With moisture pooling back across the Plains, low stratus will fill in overnight. There could be light precipitation out near the Kansas border overnight. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and 60s across the Plains and 40s across the San Luis Valley. Sunday...active weather look likely by Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft with and embedded shortwave is forecast to move across the region by the afternoon hours. Low level, moist upslope flow will keep the overnight moisture pooled across the Plains. Temperatures look to warm into the 70s and 80s by the afternoon. SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg are expected by the afternoon, and 0-6km shear of 30 to 40 kts will be sufficient for strong, to possibly severe thunderstorm development. Expect initial thunderstorm development across the Palmer Divide by midday, spreading south along the I-25 corridor and into the Plains through the afternoon. Given the parameters mentioned above, outflow winds to near 60 mph and hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter will be possible with stronger storms. In addition, given the shear and profiles, high-res guidance is developing helicity track with a couple of stronger storms across the Palmer Divide, south across Pueblo County with initial development, so there could be a small tornado threat. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Sunday Night: The end of the weekend is anticipated to have some active weather across portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A shortwave embedded within northwest flow will be pushing over the area bringing heightened support and forcing. Along with that, this wave will have shoved a cold front southward earlier in day, with better moisture behind the front. Given all of this, rain showers and thunderstorms are expected for most of the area, but particularly across the eastern mountains and plains. Showers and storms are expected to blossom earlier in the day Sunday and persist and/or continue to initiate during the early to mid evening hours as the wave treks to the southeast. With the anticipated shear, moisture, and instability, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the primary hazards being severe wind gusts and large hail. With all of that said, precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage and intensity during the late evening hours as forcing and instability lessen. As for temperatures, another mild night is in store for much of the area, with even slightly below seasonal normals for lows given the cold front passage earlier in the day. Monday - Friday: For next week, some active weather is expected as a mostly stagnant pattern remains in place. Flow will remain northwesterly through most of this period, with flow becoming more northerly near the end as a ridge of high pressure across the western US drifts to the east. Confidence remains high to very high (>60%) in this overall pattern evolution given continued and strong support from ensemble model guidance. While weak waves and orographics will allow for modest forcing, no major forcing is anticipated with this pattern, and given that, drier conditions are expected for the region. With that said though, given the lack of any moisture scouring systems, daily isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms are expected along the mountains, with some spillage of precipitation across the valleys and plains. Looking at temperatures, Monday will be the coolest day, and even slightly below seasonal values thanks to the cold front passage from Sunday. Then for the rest of the week, a slow warm up is anticipated, with near seasonal temperatures by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 544 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected to persist for tonight through most of tomorrow, before afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances arrive after around 21Z. Winds will be mainly out of the north this evening, with a cold front pushing through both stations after 08Z tonight, bringing in gusts to around 28kt. Winds become more northeasterly through the early morning hours, and eventually due easterly at KPUB tomorrow afternoon. Some storms could be strong tomorrow, with hail, outflow winds gusting to 50 mph, and lightning all possible on and near both stations. For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be mainly northwesterly through the period, with a shift to gusty easterly winds after 00Z tomorrow evening. Showers and storms are not expected for KALS tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...EHR