574
FXUS65 KPUB 070930
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms expected today along the I-25 corridor.

- Spotty critical fire weather conditions in the greater La Garita
region, and parts of the San Luis Valley today.

- Multiple days of 100F+ degree weather likely for parts of the
  plains starting late week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Currently...

Some thunder continues over the far eastern plains. Quite a bit of
rain has likely fallen in a general E-W band across central Prowers
county.

Quite a bit of outflow combined with a cool front passage has moved
across the region. Flow across the plains early this AM was
generally easterly, and solid 50 dwpts were noted over most of the
lower elevations. Over the interior, it was the opposite, as dwpts
were in the 20s and 30s. Areas of low clouds were noted forming over
parts of the plains early this AM.

Today...

For early this AM, will have to continue to monitor low cloudiness
overspreading parts of the region. With easterly flow continuing,
would expect low cloudiness to continue to expand over the region,
although do not expect all of the plains to become overcast.

The main concern is severe weather potential over the region. Quite
a few ingredient appear to be in place for some hailstorms today,
with the main forcing being a shortwave dropping southeast in the
increasingly NW mid level flow aloft. Moist upslope is in
place and NW flow is noted at midlevels, so shear will be more
than sufficient for rotating storms later today. The only
concern is will it be warm enough to get convection going? NAM
is most pessimistic and does not break out any precip on the
plains (00Z run; ambient temps too cool??) while all of the
other guidance breaks out precip by late afternoon. Any robust
updraft that gets going will rotate, but given the straight line
hodographs, we may see splitting storms. Any right moves will
move SSE while left turning storms will move more easterly). As
mentioned above, most of the HREF guidance products breaks out
convection, but it will generally be later in the day. Per HREF
guidance, I have explicitly mentioned svr potential in the
gridded database later this afternoon, mainly along the greater
I-25 corridor region, with the overall best chance being over
the greater southeast I-25 corridor. Large hail will be the
primary threat.

Tonight...

Overall very good chance of showers and storms will be ongoing
across the plains, especially along the I-25 corridor region.
Some of these storms may be strong with locally heavy rain,
especially along the Raton Mesa region. This activity may linger
into the early AM hours of Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Monday will be relatively quite cool with max temp readings only in
the lower to mid 80s across the plains and 70s valleys. Best chance
of showers and storms this day will be over the mtns/valleys with
only isolated pops on the plains. No strong storms are anticipated
but some heavy rainers may be possible across the far southern Mtns
and southern San Juans.

Looking farther out, it heat will be on the increase each day, nd by
late in the week into next weekend max temps on parts of the plains
will likely be in the 100s. Guidance shows that showers and storms
may continue over the mtns during this period, but I am a little
suspicious this may be overdone, and it may not be as moist as the
guidance indicates. However, I am confident that we will be getting
hot as the mid level heat dome is fcst to park right over
Colorado by late in the week/next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An easterly surge will push into the I-25 corridor affecting
KCOS and KPUB at the start of the TAF issuance gusts to around
30 kts will be possible before a cold front shifts winds from
the north after 08-09z at both terminals. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible as the boundary hits the mountains,
though chances are too low for more than VCSH but trends will be
monitored. Winds will shift out of the east on Sunday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms likely at both
terminals. Will carry VCTS for now given timing uncertainties,
but it is likely that both terminals will need a tempo or
prevailing group for TSRA into Sunday evening. A few storms
could become strong to severe with GR along with +TSRA and gusty
winds up to 50 kts if a stronger storm directly impacts the
terminals.

KALS will remain VFR with northwest winds picking up after 19z.
Winds will shift from the east during the early evening as
convective outflow boundaries over the Sangres spread eastward
into the San Luis Valley. It is possible winds could gust to
near 30 kts though confidence is low for now.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT