Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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619 FXUS65 KPUB 071722 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1122 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms expected today along the I-25 corridor. - Spotty critical fire weather conditions in the greater La Garita region, and parts of the San Luis Valley today. - Multiple days of 100F+ degree weather likely for parts of the plains starting late week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Currently... Some thunder continues over the far eastern plains. Quite a bit of rain has likely fallen in a general E-W band across central Prowers county. Quite a bit of outflow combined with a cool front passage has moved across the region. Flow across the plains early this AM was generally easterly, and solid 50 dwpts were noted over most of the lower elevations. Over the interior, it was the opposite, as dwpts were in the 20s and 30s. Areas of low clouds were noted forming over parts of the plains early this AM. Today... For early this AM, will have to continue to monitor low cloudiness overspreading parts of the region. With easterly flow continuing, would expect low cloudiness to continue to expand over the region, although do not expect all of the plains to become overcast. The main concern is severe weather potential over the region. Quite a few ingredient appear to be in place for some hailstorms today, with the main forcing being a shortwave dropping southeast in the increasingly NW mid level flow aloft. Moist upslope is in place and NW flow is noted at midlevels, so shear will be more than sufficient for rotating storms later today. The only concern is will it be warm enough to get convection going? NAM is most pessimistic and does not break out any precip on the plains (00Z run; ambient temps too cool??) while all of the other guidance breaks out precip by late afternoon. Any robust updraft that gets going will rotate, but given the straight line hodographs, we may see splitting storms. Any right moves will move SSE while left turning storms will move more easterly). As mentioned above, most of the HREF guidance products breaks out convection, but it will generally be later in the day. Per HREF guidance, I have explicitly mentioned svr potential in the gridded database later this afternoon, mainly along the greater I-25 corridor region, with the overall best chance being over the greater southeast I-25 corridor. Large hail will be the primary threat. Tonight... Overall very good chance of showers and storms will be ongoing across the plains, especially along the I-25 corridor region. Some of these storms may be strong with locally heavy rain, especially along the Raton Mesa region. This activity may linger into the early AM hours of Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Monday will be relatively quite cool with max temp readings only in the lower to mid 80s across the plains and 70s valleys. Best chance of showers and storms this day will be over the mtns/valleys with only isolated pops on the plains. No strong storms are anticipated but some heavy rainers may be possible across the far southern Mtns and southern San Juans. Looking farther out, it heat will be on the increase each day, nd by late in the week into next weekend max temps on parts of the plains will likely be in the 100s. Guidance shows that showers and storms may continue over the mtns during this period, but I am a little suspicious this may be overdone, and it may not be as moist as the guidance indicates. However, I am confident that we will be getting hot as the mid level heat dome is fcst to park right over Colorado by late in the week/next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 KALS...VFR this afternoon and evening with a few passing mid clouds. A front will arrive this evening with easterly winds with gusts near 25 to 30 kts possible. This may also bring reduced CIGS to near 3 kft overnight into Monday morning. KCOS and KPUB...VFR into this afternoon. Easterly will prevail through this afternoon, with gusts near 25 kts forecast. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop near KCOS around 20z, with the period 00-02z likely seeing thunderstorms near or over the terminal. Showers will remain near KCOS through the evening hours. Reduced CIGS and VIS will accompany precipitation along with gusty winds and possible hail. Very similar conditions are expected at KPUB, with the most likely time frame being from 01-04z this evening. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...MOZLEY