Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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757 FXUS65 KPUB 011726 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1126 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the area this afternoon through the evening. Primary hazards will be heavy rainfall over the mountains and gusty winds up to 50 mph on the plains. - Increasing fire danger Thursday through the holiday weekend as conditions begin to dry out. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Surface analysis indicates that low-level moisture continues to linger across the southeastern plains, which will be beneficial for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. Current radar shows residual, but diminishing, thunderstorms across Otero and Crowley counties from a passing outflow boundary along with some light showers over the La Garita and eastern San Juan mountains. An upper high is located to the southeast, centered over the OK-TX border. Due to its position, southwest flow aloft will bring an influx of subtropical moisture into southern Colorado. However, the amount of moisture will not be as abundant as it has been over the past few days and dewpoint values will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Therefore, thunderstorms will likely not be as intense. By early to mid afternoon, a short wave trough is forecast to push across the area, shifting flow aloft to westerly. This forcing coupled with the moisture will be sufficient to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. These are expected to develop by early afternoon over the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. Heavy rainfall is expected to be the primary hazard. Flash flooding will be possible beneath slower-moving or training storms, specifically for burn scars and other vulnerable areas. By mid to late afternoon, storms are expected to be along the I-25 corridor and progress eastward across the plains through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest high based thunderstorms across the plains with outflow winds gusting up to 50 mph with the stronger storms. Expect temperatures across the plains to be in the upper 90s, mid 70s in the mountain valleys, and 50s-60s for the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Tuesday...An upper shortwave crosses the Rocky Mt region early Tue, pushing a weak cold front down into eastern CO. This front will cross the Palmer Divide early, gradually swinging surface winds around to an easterly direction across the plains as it continues pushing south. Plan on isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, mainly tied to the eastern mts and plains. Temps are forecast to be right around seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Wednesday...Post-frontal conditions across the plains will mean a slightly cooler day for the area, while another stronger upper disturbance pushes into MT and ND through the afternoon and early evening. This disturbance will tap into available moisture for another day of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection, mainly along the eastern mts and across the plains. Another cold front drops in to the area late Wed night, setting the stage for Thu. As for high temps, expect mid 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains. Thursday...The disturbance to the north pushes across the Dakotas and into the Great Lakes region on Thu, while brisk and dry northwest flow settles in across CO. There is some isolated convection that may fire over the far eastern plains during the evening due to a reinforcing push of cold air, or a secondary cold front, but for the most part Thu will be a dry day with high temps in the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and in the 80s for the plains. The dry northwest flow will also become evident as the RH levels drop, leading to the potential of spotty critical fire weather conditions. Friday through Sunday...Friday will be the coolest day of the extended period, due to the cold front late Thu evening. A strong ridge of high pressure sets up over the West Coast, producing northwest flow aloft across Colorado. Plan on a warming and drying trend for the region over the weekend, with the waning available moisture restricting isolated afternoon convection to mainly the higher terrain. This will also lead to increasing fire danger, as temperatures climb back up to seasonal normals. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. As for winds, west to northwest winds will prevail at the taf sites this afternoon, with winds taking on their diurnal flow pattern by early evening. Some passing showers/-tsra with gusty winds will be possible, especially late this afternoon and early evening. Any shower activity should move through pretty quickly. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH