Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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049 FXUS65 KPUB 012011 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 211 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms during the next 24 hours, a few gusty strong storms possible. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for Wednesday. - Drier conditions return for Fourth of July, which will mean less thunderstorm coverage for many, but potential fire danger over portions of the high country and the San Luis Valley. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Currently... Early this afternoon, showers and storm were ongoing across teh mountains and valleys, and were starting to develop along the greater I-25 corridor region of the plains. Lots of clouds were noted over the higher terrain while a good part of the far eastern plains were mostly clear. Through tomorrow afternoon... A good moisture plume from the southwest will continue over the region during the next 24 hours. This, along with a broad mid level trough to our north, will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms over the region during this forecast period. Flow aloft is fairly modest, so any storms should move along at a pretty good clip, so flooding threat are low (but nonzero). The trough mentioned above will push a weak cool front down the plains later tonight through tomorrow morning. additionally, drier air will come in behind the front over the higher terrain, so the overall best chance of rain tomorrow will be along the mountains/plains interface and I-25 corridor region, with drier and warmer conditions occurring over the mountains tomorrow. The plains will be a few degrees cooler than today, with temps being several degrees cooler over the far eastern plains. Given the flow aloft, a few strong storms will be possible both this afternoon/evening and tomorrow afternoon/evening, with strong gusty winds the main concern. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Wednesday.. For Wednesday, post-frontal conditions will mean a slightly cooler day with another slight uptick in thunderstorm chances across the area. Our high temperatures look to top out in the mid 80s to low 90s for our plains, with upper 70s and low 80s for mountain valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations. We remain on the southern periphery of longwave troughing as it passes to our north, while shortwave energy embedded in the longwave pattern continues to bring chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. SPC has a majority of our plains outlooked for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, and at this time the main risks look to be lightning and gusty outflow winds. Independence Day.. We continue to dry out as we head into Thursday, which will have both positive and negative impacts to our forecast. On the positive side, most areas can expect lots of sunshine, and little to no chances for precipitation for Fourth of July celebrations. On the down side, many areas will likely see high fire danger for Thursday, especially over the high country and the San Luis Valley. Very dry conditions are expected over the higher terrain and for the mountain valleys, with relative humidity values falling into the teens through Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Gusty west winds are also expected over the high country for Thursday as well, with gusts to 35 mph possible in many locations. Dry conditions are also expected over portions of Teller and Pueblo counties, though winds are expected to remain below critical threshold in these areas. Fuels and recent rainfall may help to mitigate fire danger for Thursday, but the overall "hot, dry and windy" forecast that is becoming more and more likely over some of our mountain and valley communities over the Fourth of July is something that needs to be taken seriously either way. Friday Onwards.. Late Thursday night or into Friday, models bring a cold front across the area, increasing moisture and precip chances as we head into Friday and further into this weekend. Friday through Sunday`s pattern is dominated by northwesterly flow aloft, as a strong ridge of high pressure sits over the West Coast through much of this period. This pattern will lead to a gradual warming and drying trend, after one day of below normal post-frontal temperatures on our plains for Friday. Expect decreasing coverage and intensity for storms through the weekend, with storms remaining mostly over and near the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. As for winds, west to northwest winds will prevail at the taf sites this afternoon, with winds taking on their diurnal flow pattern by early evening. Some passing showers/-tsra with gusty winds will be possible, especially late this afternoon and early evening. Any shower activity should move through pretty quickly. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...HODANISH