Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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004 FXUS65 KPUB 020950 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 350 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Threat of strong to severe thunderstorms increase this afternoon across the eastern plains, mainly along and east of a line from Crowley County to Las Animas County. - Scattered thunderstorm activity continues on Wednesday, with some strong to severe potential over the eastern plains. - Drier conditions return Thursday with increasing fire danger. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Currently...An upper shortwave was crossing western MT and WY early this morning, producing broad west to southwest flow across CO and helping to keep some shower activity going along the Continental Divide. Temps as of 3 AM had cooled into the 50s for the high valleys, and mid to upper 60s for the plains. Today and Tonight...The upper trough axis is forecast to quickly sweep across MT and WY today, reaching the eastern borders by around 9 AM. This will keep isolated showers lingering across the higher terrain, and especially the central mts and Pikes Peak region, through the morning. A cold front is expected to drop south across the Palmer Divide right around midday, ushering in a northerly sfc wind shift that will then quickly swing around to a more easterly direction through the afternoon. Upper dynamics provided by the passing trough to the north, coupled with increasing 0-6 km bulk shear due to the sfc frontal passage, will then tap into the llvl moisture pool as evident by dewpoints in the mid 50s across the far eastern plains. Dewpoints are actually forecast to jump up into the lower 60s by early evening, hence the even greater threat for severe weather over Baca and Prowers counties. Given the ingredients, SPC has included all of the eastern plains up to the eastern mts in a Marginal threat for severe storms, and the far southeast corner in a Slight risk area. In addition, WPC has painted a swath of Marginal risk for excessive rainfall over the southeast corner of the state today, recognizing the potential for bouts of heavy rainfall. Convection should start percolating along the eastern mts by around 2 PM, affect the I-25 Corridor by 4 PM, then continue east across the plains through the evening. Meanwhile activity over the Continental Divide and high valleys will likely diminish by 6 PM. There is a chance that convection will migrate back west along the southern border through the evening and linger in the vicinity of Trinidad and Walsenburg late tonight. Look for high temps today in the 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Overnight low temps tonight are anticipated to cool into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Wednesday... Slightly cooler on Wednesday, with an uptick in precipitation from moist post-frontal air as a mid-level disturbance passes through the flow aloft. Storms will fire during the afternoon hours over and near our eastern mountains before pushing east. A tightening pressure gradient over the far eastern plains, coupled with southeasterly surface winds advecting in good moisture, should give us plenty of instability and directional shear for some strong to severe storms. As of now, SPC has most of the plains outlooked for a marginal severe risk, while our northeastern plains counties have a slight risk where the lift from the passing shortwave will be stronger. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, with 80s-90s across most of our area. Thursday (Independence Day)... The broad upper-level trough will begin to move out of our area on Thursday, ushering in drier northwest flow aloft. At the mid to low levels, westerly winds will set in over the higher terrain, leading to dry downsloping in many adjacent areas and lowering humidity values further. On one hand, this means that little to no precipitation is expected in our CWA, a boon for holiday festivities. However, fire danger will increase across our area due to low RH values and gusty surface winds. Current data shows the highest chances for critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain. The eastern plains will be dry, but winds should be slightly weaker. Either way, activities involving sparks or fire should be handled with great care. Friday Onwards... Models bring a cold front south across the plains later Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will decrease a few degrees, with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. In general, models show decreasing storm activity as we move into the weekend as a broad area of high pressure builds off of the west coast. Northwest flow will remain in place aloft, even as a shortwave trough passes to our north on Sunday. Temperatures will remain mostly steady until early next week before slowly but steadily warming. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. A cold front pushing south across the Palmer Divide today by midday will swing sfc winds around across the plains to a more E- SE direction this afternoon. Widespread convection is expected to affect all TAF sites today, with the potential of gusty and erratic outflow winds from thunderstorm developing this afternoon, mainly affecting KCOS and KPUB. KALS: VCSH this morning through 15z otherwise increasing W-SW winds with gusts to 25 kts between 17z and 02z. KCOS: Increasing E-SE winds with gusts to 25 kts after 17z with VCTS developing after 18z and lasting to around 02z. KPUB: Increasing E-SE winds with gusts to 25 kts after 17z with VCTS developing after 20z and lasting to around 03z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOORE