Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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214 FXUS65 KPUB 040444 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1044 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty critical fire weather over portions of the high country tomorrow - Below normal temperatures and daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will dominate the extended forecast, as northwest flow aloft remains in place across the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 229 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Currently... Showers and storms were noted over parts of the fcst area at 2 pm, with nearly all of the activity south of US50. Storms in the San Luis valley were on the strong side, with winds gusting to around 55 mph at KALS. Moisture over the plains has held in through early afternoon as dwpts were still well into the 50s to mid 60s across the plains, while on the other side of the mtns dwpts have decreased into the 20s and 30s. Rest of today into mid evening... Based on the moisture on the plains, winds aloft being rather robust, effective shear values in the 30 to 50 knt range and CAPE values of 1500 to 2500 Js, we are likely going to see some strong to severe storms develop over the plains in the immediate future. Although all of the plains could see storms, strongest storms will likely be east of the interstate, where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. Cant rule out a tornado today although no well defined incipient boundaries were noted in the data. Looking at the soundings, there is some rather fat CAPE over the plains, so rather large hail will be possible. Hodographs dont look overly favorable early on for well organized rotating storms, but that is fcst to change as the lower level winds pick up late this afternoon and evening. In a nutshell, we should see some strong/svr storms over the plains later this afternoon. The activity over the plains will likely move out of the region by early to mid evening. Later tonight... Drier air moves in the wake of the convective activity and we will clear out. Towards midnight, a rather strong cold front will push south over the Palmer and we will see gusty northerly winds push down the plains. This will bring in (relatively) cooler weather for the 4th of July. 4th of July... A rather impressive Holiday is in store for SE CO given that it is the 4th of July and we will likely not see any temps over the plains reaching 90 degrees! Additionally, it is likely going to be quite dry over the area, so a very nice holiday is in store for the region. Regarding fire wx concerns, there will be some spotty conditions over parts of the interior, especially N San Luis Valley and Chaffee county. I do not plan any hilites at this time but will mention spotty conditions in the FWF product. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 229 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Friday and Saturday.. Post-frontal temperatures on Friday will be nice and cool, with highs in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s across our plains and mountain valleys. Relative humidity values begin to increase across the plains, though some dry air remains in place over the high country. Winds are weaker on Friday, but will strengthen on Saturday. This will mean a downtick in critical fire weather conditions for Friday, but more widespread chances for critical fire weather through portions of the high country and the San Luis Valley on Saturday. We are warmer on Saturday as well, with highs reaching back into the low 90s on the plains, and low 80s for mountain valleys with breezy westerly winds over the mountains. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and thunderstorms will be possible both days as well, with some stronger storms possible depending on the setup both days. Sunday Onwards.. As the high over California drifts more inland towards the Great Basin for the first half of next week, our temperatures look to remain near and just below normal for most locations. Models bring a cold front across the area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday, which will also help to keep temperatures cooler for a couple of days. This will mean highs topping out in the 80s on the plains for Sunday and Monday, and in the low 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to persist across the forecast area through this period, with a slight downturn in coverage expected by the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions expected with a strong cold passing through KCOS around 07z and KPUB around 08z. North winds gusting to 35 to near 40 kts will be possible at both sites for a few hours after frontal passage. Winds will gradually decrease towards 13-15z and swing around from the east to southeast at both terminals. Some afternoon gusts to around 20 kts will be possible. KALS will see light winds overnight, then some gusty north winds up to 25 kts in the afternoon before winds decrease again towards 02z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...KT