039
FXUS65 KPUB 050943
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible over the
  southern I-25 corridor south of Pueblo.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the higher
  terrain through the extended period, with temperatures at or
  slightly below seasonal normals.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A weak wave will pass over the region today aided by enhanced
moisture being advected to the NW by overnight convection near the
New Mexico-Colorado border will spark some thunderstorms over the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the southern I-25 corridor.
There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather just south of the
aforementioned area, but if the dewpoints can get to the low to mid
50s over that region, a storm or two that develop to the north of
the outlook area has a good chance at becoming severe, since that
would increase the MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. 0-6km Bulk Shear is
around 30kts, further aiding in the severe risk if the higher
dewpoints can be achieved. Main hazards from the strongest storms
will be a base 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds.

Otherwise, quiet weather across the district. There will be some
gusty southeasterly winds of up to 20 MPH over the plains. High
temperatures will be int eh upper 70s to mid 80s over the plains and
the upper 70s to low 80s over the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Saturday...Upper ridge of high pressure will remain in place over
the West Coast through Sat, with northwest flow aloft across CO.
However, an upper shortwave will drop south into the north Rockies,
shifting the flow aloft to a slightly more westerly direction and
tightening the pressure gradient. This will mean much warmer temps
as well as dry conditions and less convection for the higher
elevations and I-25 Corridor, as well as spotty near-critical fire
weather conditions for portions of the Upper Arkansas River Valley
and Continental Divide. Across the far eastern plains, surface winds
will shift to a more southerly direction, drawing llvl moisture up
into the southeast corner of the state and increasing chances for a
few strong storms along the eastern border. Plan on maximum temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid
90s for the plains. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the
extended forecast but will still end up being within seasonal
normals.

Sunday and Monday...The northern shortwave will continue dropping
south early Sunday, pushing a cold front into eastern CO through the
morning and cooling temps down once again to slightly below normal
levels through Monday. Frontal passage and the resulting upslope
surface flow will increase precipitation chances across the eastern
mts and plains Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday the ridge to the
west will start to move inland, weakening the northwest flow aloft,
and lingering moisture will translate to scattered convection over
the mts and isolated activity for the plains during the afternoon
and early evening. Plan on high temps in the mid 70s to mid 80s for
most areas both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...The upper ridge axis approaches the
region, setting up over UT and AZ through midweek. This will produce
a gradual warming trend each day, while southeast surface flow will
continue to push higher dewpoint air back towards the eastern mts.
Long range models indicate scattered convection chances for the
higher terrain each afternoon and evening, even likely chances over
the southern Sangres, and isolated precip for the eastern plains. As
for temps, look for highs around 80F for the high valleys each day,
while the plains warm into the lower 80s to lower 90s. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the forecast period for KALS, KCOS,
and KPUB. There will be thunderstorms developing over the southern I-
25 corridor tomorrow afternoon and latest guidance hints at storms
developing near the KPUB terminal. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible and MVFR to IFR conditions would develop if a thunderstorm
develops overhead. Otherwise, the primary flow regime over the
plains is southeasterly, gusting up to 20kts at time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SKELLY