Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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579 FXUS65 KPUB 051714 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1114 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible over the southern I-25 corridor south of Pueblo. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain through the extended period, with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A weak wave will pass over the region today aided by enhanced moisture being advected to the NW by overnight convection near the New Mexico-Colorado border will spark some thunderstorms over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the southern I-25 corridor. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather just south of the aforementioned area, but if the dewpoints can get to the low to mid 50s over that region, a storm or two that develop to the north of the outlook area has a good chance at becoming severe, since that would increase the MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. 0-6km Bulk Shear is around 30kts, further aiding in the severe risk if the higher dewpoints can be achieved. Main hazards from the strongest storms will be a base 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds. Otherwise, quiet weather across the district. There will be some gusty southeasterly winds of up to 20 MPH over the plains. High temperatures will be int eh upper 70s to mid 80s over the plains and the upper 70s to low 80s over the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Saturday...Upper ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the West Coast through Sat, with northwest flow aloft across CO. However, an upper shortwave will drop south into the north Rockies, shifting the flow aloft to a slightly more westerly direction and tightening the pressure gradient. This will mean much warmer temps as well as dry conditions and less convection for the higher elevations and I-25 Corridor, as well as spotty near-critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Upper Arkansas River Valley and Continental Divide. Across the far eastern plains, surface winds will shift to a more southerly direction, drawing llvl moisture up into the southeast corner of the state and increasing chances for a few strong storms along the eastern border. Plan on maximum temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the extended forecast but will still end up being within seasonal normals. Sunday and Monday...The northern shortwave will continue dropping south early Sunday, pushing a cold front into eastern CO through the morning and cooling temps down once again to slightly below normal levels through Monday. Frontal passage and the resulting upslope surface flow will increase precipitation chances across the eastern mts and plains Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday the ridge to the west will start to move inland, weakening the northwest flow aloft, and lingering moisture will translate to scattered convection over the mts and isolated activity for the plains during the afternoon and early evening. Plan on high temps in the mid 70s to mid 80s for most areas both days. Tuesday through Thursday...The upper ridge axis approaches the region, setting up over UT and AZ through midweek. This will produce a gradual warming trend each day, while southeast surface flow will continue to push higher dewpoint air back towards the eastern mts. Long range models indicate scattered convection chances for the higher terrain each afternoon and evening, even likely chances over the southern Sangres, and isolated precip for the eastern plains. As for temps, look for highs around 80F for the high valleys each day, while the plains warm into the lower 80s to lower 90s. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at the terminal. A few wind gusts near 20 to 25 kts may be possible this afternoon. KCOS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few showers may be possible this afternoon into early evening, which may briefly reduce CIGS or VIS. KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Removed VCTS as thunderstorms look to remain south of the terminal this afternoon and evening. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY