008
FXUS65 KPUB 061715
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm winds are possible over the
  southeastern plains this afternoon.

- Meteorological critical fire weather conditions are expected
  over the San Luis Valley, the La Garitas, and the southern
  portion of the upper Arkansas River Valley, however fuels are
  not critical, therefore no fire weather products will be
  issued.

- Greater chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, with
  strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

- Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected
  Monday through Friday, with the best potential across the
  higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft, a weak wave passing by, and surface
cyclone developing over the plains present the potential for a few
strong that would create severe criteria wind gusts from outflow.
Looking at model sounding over Springfield - there is a clear
inverted-V sounding (dry at the surface, moist at the midlevels, and
dry aloft; ~1500 J/kg of DCAPE) will lead to elevated convection
that is outflow dominate. Beginning around 3PM and lasting through
around sunset, these outflow dominate storms will develop over the
southeast plains creating a risk of 60-70 mph wind gusts. If a more
organized storm develops, which I don`t think it will, perhaps 1
inch hail will be possible.

Over in the mountains meteorological fire weather conditions will
exist over the the extreme southern portions of the upper Arkansas
River Valley, the La Garita Mountains, and the northern and southern
portions of the San Luis Valley. Wind gusts will range around 35 to
40 MPH over the higher elevations and up to 30 MPH over the lower
elevations. However, according to our partners, fuels are not
considered critical over the San Luis Valley and the La Garita
Mountains have not been tested in since April - however, neighboring
fire weather zones to the west are not considered critical so we
will follow that for guidance. No fire weather products will be
issued today.

Otherwise, relatively calm weather is expected over the region.
Temperatures increase a few degrees as compared to yesterday, with
high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s over the plains and
the upper 70s to 80s over the mountain valleys. Low temperatures
tomorrow morning will be in the 50s over the plains and the 40s over
the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Sunday and Monday...The northern shortwave will drop into CO early
Sunday, pushing a cold front into eastern CO through the morning and
cooling temps down to below normal levels through Monday. Frontal
passage and the resulting upslope surface flow will increase
precipitation chances across the eastern mts and plains Sunday and
moreso Sunday night, as it looks like it might be a slightly later
show. An abundance of shear and the increased available moisture
will mean that by late Sunday afternoon into the evening, there will
be a chance for strong to even severe thunderstorms across the
plains, and SPC has included a portion of the plains within a
Marginal area for severe storms. Finally, increasing winds and
continued dry conditions across the Upper Arkansas River Valley and
portions of the Continental Divide will mean spotty critical fire
weather conditions during the afternoon. However, latest fuels
information from surrounding sites indicate that greenup is still
occurring in those areas so no fire weather highlight at this time.
On Monday the upper trough moves east of CO, while the ridge axis to
the west pushes into CA, weakening the northwest flow aloft, and
lingering moisture will translate to scattered convection over the
mts and isolated activity for the plains during the afternoon and
early evening. Plan on high temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s for
most areas both days.

Tuesday through Friday...A somewhat static pattern sets up for the
remainder of the week, as the upper ridge of high pressure gradually
moves into the Great Basin region. This will produce a lighter north
to northwest flow aloft, and trapped moisture under the ridge will
get recirculated each day for convection chances, scattered over the
higher terrain and more isolated over the eastern plains. The heat
returns, with a degree or two of warming each day especially across
the plains and temps climbing back into seasonal normals. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few mid
clouds are forecast this afternoon and northwesterly winds will
likely gust near 25 kts.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions this afternoon and evening with
passing mid clouds. A cold front/outflow will arrive overnight,
with increasing north to northeast winds and gusts 25 to 30 kts
possible after the cold front passes. Low stratus is possible
Sunday morning at both terminals. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY