Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
741 FNUS55 KPSR 142119 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 219 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2024 .DISCUSSION... The atmospheric environment is supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms and wetting rains this afternoon in parts of Southern CA and later this afternoon through this evening in South-Central AZ. Overall probabilities of rain are around 20-40%, with the highest chances in the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix and near the central mountains of Southern CA. There is no guarantee of storms, but outflows from more distant storms could cause a sudden wind shift and bring strong wind gusts. The probability of 35 mph thunderstorm winds is 50-70% in South- Central AZ and near the mountains of Southern CA. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be a bit less Monday and Tuesday and remain confined mostly to the higher terrain areas. Aside from thunderstorm winds, general winds will follow typical diurnal wind patterns with afternoon wind gusts up to 20-25 mph. Min RH values will range from 20-30% this afternoon and fall slightly to 15-25% Monday and Tuesday. Overnight recoveries will be good, mostly in the 40-60% range. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-150930- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 219 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature.................80-90. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................49-60 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............North 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light and variable after midnight. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent west portion...20 percent east portion. * LAL.............................2. .MONDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................103-108. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................20-26 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northeast 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......7700 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......West 13 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .MONDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature.................81-91. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................42-53 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................2. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the morning. * Max Temperature.................105-110. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-22 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......8800 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......West 11 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 82-92. Highs 106-112. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms and slight chance of showers. Lows 83-93. Highs 107-112. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 84-94. Highs 106-111. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 83-93. Highs 106-112. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 81-91. Highs 104-110. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-150930- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 219 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2024 /219 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................81-86. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................51-67 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .MONDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers. * Max Temperature.................105-110. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................21-25 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8000 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 10 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .MONDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................82-87. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................44-58 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................108-113. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-22 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........7300 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 10 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 83-88. Highs 109-114. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 84-89. Highs 109-114. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Lows 85-90. Highs 108-113. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 85-90. Highs 109-114. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Lows 84-90. Highs 107-112. $$ AZZ133-150930- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 219 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * Min Temperature.................66-82. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................54-74 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................40 percent in the evening becoming 0 percent after midnight. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................20 percent. * LAL.............................3 in the evening becoming 1 after midnight. .MONDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................90-103. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................22-32 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............North 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 30 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1 in the morning becoming 3 in the afternoon. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .MONDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening becoming slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. * Min Temperature.................66-83. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................48-67 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............North 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................3 in the evening becoming 2 after midnight. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................92-105. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................20-29 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............North 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 30 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1 in the morning becoming 3 in the afternoon. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68-84. Highs 93-106. West winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-84. Highs 91-107. East winds 5 to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-84. Highs 91-106. East winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-84. Highs 89-106. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-83. Highs 88-103. $$ CAZ232-150930- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 219 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................80-87. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................43-75 pct. * 24 hr trend..................10 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming south 5 to 10 mph after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light and variable after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .MONDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................101-110. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................18-27 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 20 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .MONDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................81-88. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................35-62 pct. * 24 hr trend..................12 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming southeast 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................103-113. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................14-22 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 82-89. Highs 104-114. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 83-91. Highs 104-114. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 85-92. Highs 104-114. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 85-92. Highs 104-114. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 84-91. Highs 103-113. $$ CAZ230-150930- Joshua Tree National Park- 219 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................71-83. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................36-48 pct. * 24 hr trend..................17 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph in the evening becoming light and variable after midnight. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .MONDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................92-106. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................18-26 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 20 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * LAL.............................1 in the morning becoming 2 in the afternoon. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .MONDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers in the evening. * Min Temperature.................73-85. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................28-36 pct. * 24 hr trend..................10 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................10 percent in the evening becoming 0 percent after midnight. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................94-108. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................13-21 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 73-86. Highs 95-109. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 74-87. Highs 95-109. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 76-89. Highs 96-110. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 75-89. Highs 96-109. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers. Lows 75-88. Highs 95-108. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Monday July 22nd through Wednesday July 24th: Above normal temperatures and above median precipitation.