571
FXUS65 KPIH 061937
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
137 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday. A few thunderstorms are still
possible across the eastern highlands this evening, especially
around Island Park down to near Driggs. Those storms would produce
little rain and some gusty winds. Winds will slowly begin to
subside, while also switching to a north or northeast direction
for the most part overnight. Our current headline out for a LAKE
WIND ADVISORY on American Falls remains in place. We will need
another LAKE WIND ADVISORY for Sunday due to impacts from
Northeast winds, which occur at much lower speeds. Otherwise,
temperatures will be slightly cooler than Saturday`s
numbers...which also will be the coolest we will see for a while
around central and eastern Idaho.  Keyes

.LONG TERM....Monday through next Friday.
This extended forecast is brought to you by: Heat Dome. In all
seriousness though, it is going to be quite hot throughout the week
ahead thanks to high pressure sitting squarely over the Southwestern
US. Highs will be plenty warm on Monday and Tuesday, in the 80s and
90s, but the heat really kicks in for the second half of the week.
Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles bring in temperatures ranging from
100 to 105 degrees F for Wednesday through Friday throughout the
eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain. The NBM seems a little
hesitant to get quite that hot as it is generally advertising highs
right around 100-101 for much of the eastern Magic Valley and Snake
Plain during this time frame and about a 40 to 60 percent chance of
highs reaching or exceeding 100 degrees each of those afternoons.
For reference, our average highs for Pocatello and Idaho Falls for
July 10-12 are in the mid to upper 80s with records right around 100
degrees. Current forecast lows are only in the mid to upper 60s for
much of the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain in the second half
of next week, so we will continue monitoring the need for any heat
products.

There doesn`t look to be much in the way of wind during the week,
but Thursday and Friday will get a bit breezy at times with gusts
around 25 mph. As one might surmise with the heat in store, it will
be quite dry, too, with min RHs forecast to be in the upper single
digits to mid teens for nearly the entire area for much of next
week. By the end of the week, a trough begins to move onshore across
the West Coast and it may push our high pressure ridge eastward just
enough to introduce some minor, less than 20 percent, rain and storm
chances to the area on Friday and Saturday.
AMM

&&

.AVIATION...Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. The wind
will be the main aviation impact today with afternoon gusts around
25 to 30 kts at IDA, PIH, and BYI. It will be breezy at DIJ and SUN
with gusts just a bit lighter, in the 20 to 25 kts range. Gusts will
diminish overnight, though remain around 15 kts at IDA with gusts
only around 15 to 20 kts on Sunday afternoon. Of note, as
temperatures continue to increase, be aware of increased density
altitudes each afternoon, especially at BYI, PIH, and IDA.
AMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible through
this evening across Zone 411, especially from around Island Park
down to near Driggs. There is a 10-30% chance of seeing gusts over
35 mph with any storm in that area. Otherwise, dry and breezy
conditions will also continue through sunset before starting to
wind down across central and eastern Idaho. Critical to near-
critical fire weather conditions (lower humidity and gusty winds)
are expected across all or portions of Zone 425, 427 and to some
extent higher elevations of Zone 422. we are also seeing similar
conditions in spots across the rest of the central mountains. We
will let the RED FLAG WARNING for 425 and 427 continue through
mid-evening. Otherwise, the story for the upcoming week is
expanding hot and dry conditions across the area. This includes
single digits and teens for afternoon humidity and poor to very
poor overnight recovery especially across higher elevations. Well
above average temperatures will also mean potential heat-related
issues for any crews spending prolonged time out on the lines. We
will eventually need to watch for any mid- level moisture creeping
into the picture, especially as we are looking later in the week
and next weekend. This would mean an eventual increase in dry
thunderstorm potential. It is several days out and depends on how
the ridge breaks down. Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ425-427.
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ054.

&&

$$