Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
731 FXUS65 KPIH 031957 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday Aside from the winds, things are relatively quiet across eastern Idaho today and this will continue into Independence Day. Afternoon satellite imagery shows some some cumulus development across the central mountains and around the Island Park region, closer to an upper level trough sweeping through Montana this afternoon. Further south and west however, skies are basically cloud-free and we expect more of this again on Thursday. Hi-res CAMs do show some low potential for a shower, maybe a thunderstorm, to develop within the aforementioned CU field around Island Park but aside from that, we`ll be dry region wide the next few days. Winds remain breezy in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley and this will continue until around sunset with winds gusting up to around 30-35 mph. Temps are running in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon and this will likely as warm as they`ll get today. Tomorrow looks very similar, perhaps a few degrees warmer but still on the cooler side of normal for early July. Enjoy while you can because things are about to get very hot as we get into next week. McKaughan .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday Under the increasing influence of a broad H5 ridge of high pressure through the weekend into early next week, temperatures will see a warming trend as conditions remain very dry with near record to record warmth possible by the middle of next week. With the H5 ridge axis situated along the Pacific Coast Friday, this axis will shift east heading into next week which will lead to increasingly warm temperatures and slightly breezy 10-25 mph winds both Friday and Saturday. Highs midweek next week will peak in the 90s to low 100s which is about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Given near record to record warmth is expected, HEAT ADVISORIES and or EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS will likely be needed around this timeframe, preceded by an EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for either product. In the meantime, enjoy the seasonable temperatures through the weekend before next weeks warming trend. MacKay && .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies. Winds will remain breezy this afternoon especially at KPIH, KIDA and KBYI with gusts near 30 kts possible at times. Winds will quickly diminish later this evening and will be light and variable as we move into Thursday. McKaughan && .FIRE WEATHER... As seasonably cool and dry conditions persist, a passing H5 trough in Montana today will lead to an increase in winds and around a 10- 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms around the Island Park region. A combination of wind gusts in that 30-40 mph range and RH dropping to 10-15% this afternoon has led to a RED FLAG WARNING which is in effect from 1200 to 2100 today for FWZ 425 and 427. Under the increasing influence of high pressure through the weekend into early next week, temperatures will continue to see a warming trend with highs peaking midweek next week in the 90s to low 100s across our lower elevations. Given this warm and very dry air mass in place, RHs will reach the single digits and teens most afternoons in the lower elevations with winds both Friday and Saturday approaching that 30 mph gust threshold given a series of passing H5 shortwave troughs along the Continental Divide. These days will need to be monitored for potential critical fire weather conditions. Outside of those two days, winds will remain sub- critical as very dry conditions through all of next week. MacKay && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ425-427. && $$