373
FXUS65 KPIH 050814
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
214 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sat night. High pressure relents a
little on Sat afternoon as a low slides through southern Canada.
This will not affect the warming trend, with 6 to 10 deg F of
warming for the high today compared to yesterday, and another 3 to
7 deg F from Fri to Sat. It does bring an increase to the wind for
the late afternoon and evening, and a few clouds Sat night. It may
evening bring thunderstorms to the border region near Island Park
in the extreme northeast of the forecast area. This will likely
mean Lake Wind Advisory for American Falls Reservoir on Sat
evening, and the Fire Weather Watch currently in effect for the
eastern Magic Valley and south central highlands appears to be on
track.

The heat does not become a factor until well beyond this
timeframe. Messick

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.
Sunday will be the coolest day of the long term period with high
temperatures mainly in the 80s with some 70s in higher elevations.
Winds will be much reduced from Saturday with a generally downslope
pattern out of the north to northeast.   The strong upper level
ridge axis will continue to progress east through next week with the
axis over Idaho on Thursday.   Temperatures will warm rapidly with
Monday highs in low elevations into the 90s then mid to upper 90s
with many low elevations sites above 100 degrees Wednesday through
Friday.   It will be dry through the period but may see some
monsoonal moisture push in Friday into next weekend as the ridge
moves east but low confidence at this point that far out.   Not
expecting much wind in the long term period.
GK


&&

.AVIATION...
Expect clear skies once again today with afternoon winds after 18Z
increasing to the 10 knot range at all sites but not expecting
gusts.  Sunday after 18Z expect much stronger winds in the sustained
15 to 20 knot range at the BYI, IDA and PIH sites.  Skies will
remain clear.
GK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expecting strong warming with continued dry
afternoons compared to yesterday. On Sat, a low moving through
southern Canada will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the
extreme northeast corner of the Targhee NF on one end, and
critical afternoon humidity and gusty wind qualifying for a Red
Flag Warning in the Twin Falls BLM and southern Sawtooth NF`s
lower elevations. This low will cool temperatures for Sun, but the
heat returns with 100 deg F at the lowest elevations showing up by
next Wed. Messick


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$