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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
221 FXUS65 KPIH 072020 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday. We will continue with dry conditions across central and eastern Idaho. Northeast winds will slowly diminish into this evening. The current LAKE WIND ADVISORY for American Falls expires at 3pm, but some guidance shows enough wind lasting through 5-7pm that we MIGHT have to extend the headline. It likely will be a last minute decision if we do that. We should see a few afternoon cumulus clouds, especially up north closer to Montana and the Divide, but we are not expecting anything other than that. Temperatures will jump several degrees Monday, but that is only the beginning of a long duration excessive heat event. Keyes .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday. The heat will be here by Tuesday, but we will be hottest from Wednesday through Saturday. Highs will stay in the 90s for most of the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain on Tuesday. However, once we get to Wednesday these areas will have a 50 to 70 percent chance (per the NBM) for highs to reach or exceed 100 degrees. The upper Snake Plain is where the 50 percent chance will be as the NBM continues to advertise highs of generally 95 to 100 degrees in this area while both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles show highs in Idaho Falls reaching and exceeding 100 degrees beginning on Wednesday. Temperatures in most of our population centers will stay in the 60 to 65 degree range overnight. All of this to say, both our highs and lows will be running about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid July. And some of us will be approaching record highs and record high lows through this stretch. As such, we`ve issued an Excessive Heat Watch for Wednesday through Saturday. It`s no surprise that it will be quite dry through the week, too, with minimum relative humidities in the upper single digits to mid teens. Winds gusts on Wednesday will be around 20 to 25 mph through the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain with the potential for some stronger gusts around 30 mph out across Craters of the Moon and the rest of the Arco Desert/Mud Lake areas on Thursday and Friday, so we will see near-critical, if not hitting critical, fire weather conditions, too. AMM && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue throughout today and into Monday as high pressure keeps any rain or storms well out of our area. We may see a few afternoon cumulus clouds pop up around 7000 ft, but that`s about it. Winds are much lighter at all sites today with gusts of only 15 to 20 kts. Winds become light and variable overnight and through Monday morning. Of note, as temperatures continue to increase, be aware of increased density altitudes each afternoon, especially at BYI, PIH, and IDA. AMM && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warmer conditions will continue throughout the week. Temperatures will climb to well above average later this week, which will lead to potential heat stress issues for any crews outside for longer periods of time. This will also lead to some very low humidity in the afternoon along with poor to very poor overnight recovery for the mountains. It does look like we may see some afternoon cumulus at times. Our Blend of Models through midweek are trying to show some type of dry thunderstorm potential, most areas under 10% except around Monida Pass, Island Park and Driggs where it is 10-20%. While it is something to watch, that is likely WAY OVERDONE...and reality is somewhere closer to zero or 5% at best. A new wrench thrown into the mix is the increasing potential for afternoon gusty winds, as we may end up sitting on the north end of the ridge...and the combination of afternoon heating and any passing wave to the north helping to stir things up. Lastly, it still looks like by Friday, more likely the weekend, we get enough monsoon moisture wrapping around the ridge to begin worrying about dry thunderstorm potential. Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory Until 3PM MDT For IDZ054. Excessive Heat Watch Wednesday Through Saturday For IDZ051>053-055>059-061>062-065-067>068-070-075 && $$