459
FXUS61 KPHI 020210
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1010 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High pressure builds closer to the area later
Wednesday into Thursday before settling over our area on Friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM, the remaining portion of the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch was allowed to expire. The Flood Watch has been cancelled.
Some showers will continue overnight with some thunder. Lows
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Latest guidance suggests this frontal boundary will slow down
and possibly become quasi-stationary across southern New Jersey
and the southern Delmarva come daybreak Wednesday. As a result,
additional showers and and a few thunderstorms may develop
across this corridor through Wednesday morning before gradually
shifting offshore throughout the day. PWAT values in this narrow
corridor will still be near 2 inches, suggesting heavy downpours
will still be possible for at least the first half of the day.
Skies will be overcast to mostly cloudy to start the day with
gradual clearing in the afternoon from west to east. High
temperatures will be in the 80s, with some areas that see
sunshine in the afternoon further north and west likely seeing
the warmest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and quiet weather follows for Wednesday night as high
pressure builds in to our south and west. Lows in the 60s.

While high pressure will be increasingly in control on Thursday,
a weak cold front looks to sink southward during the afternoon
and evening on Thursday. This cold front looks to set off some
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm for areas near and NW
of I-78. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Nighttime lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A lingering upper level trough looks to become reinforced as it
remains across much of the Northeast through the end of the
work week before moving offshore over the weekend. At the
surface, a high pressure system settles over our area on Friday
and Saturday and moving offshore on Sunday, keeping the region
mostly dry.

Daytime temperatures in the 80s for most Friday and Saturday,
with temperatures look to warm closer to 90 on Sunday. Dew
points are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s before
increasing to around 70 on Sunday. Overall, the most pleasant
day does look to be Friday which should make for a nice forecast
for the 4th of July.

Next week looks to begin hot and humid for next Monday and
Tuesday but there will be chances for late day showers/storms
as the next cold front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Visibility restrictions will remain possible in
showers and storms this evening hours for all terminals.
Lingering showers could continue through 10-12Z, with thunder
not entirely out of the question. An MVFR stratus deck could set
in for the I-95 terminals, KMIV, and KACY 03-06Z and continue
through the overnight. Periods of IFR ceilings are not out of
the question. West-southwest wind 5 knots or less. Moderate
confidence.

Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings may linger through the morning hours
for the I-95 terminals, KMIV, and KACY. Improvement to VFR is
expected at all terminals into the afternoon hours with
lingering ceilings lifting and scattering. West-southwest wind
around 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue until early Wednesday
morning. There will also be showers/storms moving over the
waters and these could produce localized wind gusts over 40
knots. Winds and seas subside below advisory criteria by
daybreak Wednesday. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms
possible off the Southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts.

Outlook...

Wednesday night into Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, winds go more west/southwesterly and lighten to
around 10 MPH or less. Seas decrease as well within the surf
zone to around 2 feet. There remains a 1 foot 9 second swell
from the ESE along with a frontal boundary just offshore. As a
result, we will have a MODERATE risk for rip currents on
Wednesday.

For Thursday, winds remain light around 10 MPH or less out of
the west in the morning, turning southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas decrease further, to around 1 foot. The ESE swell will be
diminishing to a 1 ft 8 second swell and the frontal boundary
will be further offshore. As a result, we have a LOW risk for
rip currents for Thursday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/MJL
NEAR TERM...Gorse/MJL
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
AVIATION...Cooper/MJL
MARINE...MJL