237
FXUS61 KPHI 181614
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1214 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic region early
this morning. It will be followed by high pressure for the end
of the week and into the weekend. Another upper system and surface
front will arrive by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes to the previous discussion.

For the day today, the aformentioned front should nudge a bit
farther south and east and then linger just off the NJ coast
extending south/west into southern Delmarva. This will keep a
fair amount of cloud cover around for southern and coastal NJ as
well as Delmarva where there could be some isolated to
scattered showers or storms around during the day. Farther
north, along and north of the I-95 corridor, expect the day to
be dry with lowering humidity due to NW winds and just some
lingering mostly mid and high cloud cover around. Generally
expect highs in the mid/upper 80s except a bit cooler near the
coast and over the southern Poconos. As mentioned, dew points
will also be falling to more comfortable values (into the 60s)
for most places but will still be in the low 70s over southern
Delmarva into parts of coastal and southern NJ closer to the
front.

The front will continue slowly sliding southeastward away from
the area tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms may linger in
the evening across southern Delaware but it should clear out
after midnight. Lows will be in the considerably more
comfortable 60s for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure from the Ohio Valley begins to ridge towards our
area, so great weather is expected for the short term. Dry and
comfortable for Friday/Friday night and much of Saturday too.
There could be a couple showers across the far southern Delmarva
and western parts of the region Sat afternoon, but for now we
only have slight chance pops for those areas. A few more showers
possible for srn Delaware Sat night. Temperatures both days
will be near normal for mid-July with low/mid 80s for highs and
mid 60s/low 70s for lows. The air will be comfortable too with
dew points in the 50s for Friday and 60s during Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper air pattern across the East for the long term will feature
Bermuda high pressure offshore ridging back across the Carolinas and
Southeast states. Low pressure across northeast Canada will have a
weak trough across the Great Lakes and down into the Mississippi
Valley. These features will tend to hold from Sunday into the middle
of next week.

Temperatures will be close to normal with highs mostly in the mid
80s N/W and closer to 90 for metro Philadelphia and Delmarva. Lows
will be in the 60s N/W and around 70 for the milder S/E areas.
Excessive heat is not expected!  Precipitation events will focus
around weak short waves that will move thru the W/SW flow aloft.
There will be chance for showers Monday but better chances for rain
and a few tstms will be around for Tue/Wed. Sunday will be dry for
most areas (slight chc pops far SE).

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Some lingering sub VFR cigs early in the morning around
MIV and ACY but otherwise mainly VFR. MIV and ACY could also see
some isolated showers or storms around during the day but
chances are too low to include in TAF. NW winds around 5 to 10
knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds around 5 knots in the evening
veering to north/northeast overnight around 5 knots.

Outlook...

Friday/Saturday... VFR expected. Patchy fog possible at night.

Sunday/Monday... Largely VFR. Scattered showers/tstms mostly
  afternoon/evening with lower conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA was allowed to expire at noon. Seas 3-4 feet for the rest
of the day Thursday continuing through Thursday night. There
could also be some lingering scattered showers and storms over
the waters through Thursday.

Outlook...

Fri/Sat/Sun ... sub-SCA conditions expected. Fair weather Fri/Sat
and a chance for an afternoon/evening shower Sunday.

Monday/Tuesday... sub-SCA continues. Scattered showers/tstms.

Rip currents...

For today, winds will turn more offshore out of the west to
northwest and decrease to around 10 mph. Wave heights will
mainly be around 1-2 feet in Delaware and 2-3 feet in New Jersey
with a 7-8 second period. As the winds should be weaker and
directed offshore across the region, the risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents is
forecast to be LOW at the DE beaches and MODERATE at the NJ
shore on Thursday.

For Friday, winds will become northeasterly but remain around
10 mph. Wave heights will mainly remain around 1-2 feet in
Delaware and 2-3 feet in New Jersey with a 7-8 second period.
Therefore, the risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents is forecast to be LOW at the DE beaches
and MODERATE at the NJ shore on Friday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/OHara/RCM
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MJL/OHara/RCM