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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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536 FXUS61 KPHI 191753 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 153 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through tonight across the region with a frontal boundary stalled south of the area. A weak system passes by Saturday night, then high pressure will remain offshore through much of next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Our nice day of summer continues this Friday with warm temperatures, but very low humidity. Dew points around the region are comfortably in the upper 50s. A dry and cool night will be in store for us as well with lows dropping into the 60s again. The stalled frontal boundary to our south will begin to return northward on Saturday as a shortwave trough nears the region. As it does, high clouds will increase across the region through the day. Chances for some showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm come mid-late afternoon with the greatest chances (25-40%) across the Delmarva and southern NJ. Portions of eastern PA could see a 20-30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm as well. Otherwise, most of the region will remain dry and seasonable. Afternoon highs will remain in the low to mid 80s with dew points creeping back into the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The stalled frontal boundary to our south will begin to return northward into the area by Saturday night as a shortwave trough nears the region. The trough and associated jet streak will pass through Saturday night, then zonal flow returns by Sunday. The main story for the weekend will be temperatures and humidity levels starting creep back up, though not to oppressive levels as dew points should top out mainly in the 60s. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range, warmest Sunday, and lows mostly in the 60s to low 70s. The passing trough will yield an increasing chance for convection by late Saturday into Saturday night. The question is how much instability will be around during the overnight period though since diurnally driven instability will be waning, so we continue to advertise only 20-40% PoPs. Following a mostly cloudy Saturday, more sun can be expected by Sunday. Some isolated lingering convection will be possible Sunday across southern Delmarva with the boundary remaining in the vicinity but it will be an otherwise dry day. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely during this period, but gusty winds and heavy downpours may be possible. Remaining tranquil through Sunday night and remaining mild. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The area will be in a deep layer moist south to southwest flow for much of next week due to a long wave trough over eastern North America and ridging over the western Atlantic. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure remains offshore and the frontal boundary will lift well north of the area. This will translate to increasing chances for convection with each day as synoptic support increases with each passing day. Generally expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, favoring the typical diurnally driven hours. Some severe thunderstorms are possible, though the daily details on the convective evolution remain unclear. PWATs will also be quite high given the moist set up so we will also have to watch for possible flooding. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs generally ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees and lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Humidity will increase though and may become quite oppressive by the middle of the week with dew points potentially in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through Today...VFR conditions with light and variable winds. A seabreeze after 18Z may cause SE-S winds at KMIV/KACY. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with increasing high and mid level clouds especially after 06Z. Winds expected to be light and variable for much of the night. High confidence. Saturday...Prevailing VFR. High and mid level clouds around, but no impact to terminals. Low-end chance for showers and possibly isolated TSRA, but coverage and confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs. Winds turn SW and remain 10 kts or less. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...Generally prevailing VFR. A 20-40% chance of showers or thunderstorms mainly late day Saturday into the first part of Saturday night. Patchy fog possible at night. Monday through Wednesday...Generally prevailing VFR expected, but scattered showers and thunderstorms likely each afternoon and evening, which could bring some restrictions if they move over any of the terminals. && .MARINE... Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday night and again by Monday through Wednesday. Rip Currents... For Today...with a slight onshore component to the wind, and a medium period swell continuing, the risk for dangerous rip currents along the NJ shore is MODERATE today. The on shore component is slightly less at the Delaware Beaches, therefore, the risk there is LOW today. On Saturday, wave heights and the dominant period is expected to decrease. Therefore, the risk for dangerous rip currents is LOW for the coasts of NJ and DE. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann NEAR TERM...Johnson/MJL SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann AVIATION...MJL/Staarmann MARINE...MJL/Staarmann