Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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272 FXUS61 KPBZ 071330 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 930 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday, associated with a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl. Monday and Tuesday will be the hottest days of the week with widespread 90s outside of the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions and mostly seasonable temperatures today. ------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will result in mainly clear skies with a few instances of afternoon cu. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Saturday with slight warm advection aloft and diurnal mixing under a mostly clear sky. Temperatures will trend 5 degrees above the climatological average; heat index values south of Pittsburgh are anticipated to be near 90F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions continue. - Above normal temperatures. - Fog potential for Monday morning. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and mostly clear skies, early morning fog development could occur again Monday morning. Heading into the day on Monday, high pressure positioned off the east coast will make for southwesterly flow into the southern counties of the forecast area. A passing trough aloft to the south may be enough to spawn a few showers or storms into Preston and Tucker Counties for Monday afternoon. With a noted 590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures around 20C by Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to range in the low to mid-90s across the region. A return in moisture and warmer temperatures will lead to Heat Index values in the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough passing through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning output supports this. Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The trend currently is, the core of the tropical low to lift north into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. This will likely lead to the main rainfall threat on Wednesday. The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time and low confidence is the take away as the ridge off the coast keeps the trough and merged remnants of Beryl over the Mid Atlantic a bit longer keeping low chance pops in the forecast for Thursday through Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure would keep the area dry to end the period on Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast. All the fog at FKL and ZZV has lifted with VFR to prevail through the balance of the forecast. The only place where confidence goes below 90% is the development of pre dawn fog Monday morning. Right now, probs are lower than this morning and with a warmer column with dewpoints getting near 70F it will be tougher. High based cu is forecast again this afternoon with CCLs around 5KFT. .Outlook... VFR continues through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday through Thursday with brief, related restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger/88 SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88 LONG TERM...Shallenberger AVIATION...Rackley/McMullen