291
FXUS63 KPAH 201111
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
611 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend;
  however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.

- Chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms return
  to the forecast this afternoon through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A surface trough stretching through west Tennessee this morning is
expected to work its way into western Kentucky this afternoon and
evening. As this happens, a few showers and thunderstorms can be
expected across mainly the Pennyrile. Instability values are progged
to reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon, which will be more
than enough for thunderstorm development. In fact, early this
morning, there are already some thunderstorms developing across
northern Mississippi into western Tennessee. This will be similar to
what the Pennyrile will see by early to mid afternoon. Deep-layer
shear is expected to be less than 20kts, so not anticipating any
severe weather today. Outside of the aformentioned location, cloud
cover will be greater today than it has been the past few days with
a gradual increase into much of next week.

The overall pattern will be generally troughing over the eastern
CONUS with ridging across the west. That will keep the Quad State in
the base of a trough with multiple disturbances making their way
through the area. Low-level moisture will gradually increase through
the week as temperatures also increase. The increased instability
and added moisture across the area will set the stage for scattered
to numerous showers and storms each day, with the greatest coverage
expected each afternoon from Monday through Friday. It still appears
as though the greatest chance for showers and storm next week will
be Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Very little shear will
be in place, so not expecting any widespread severe weather
potential; however, the storms will likely be slow-moving, which
will lead to a localized heavy rainfall threat.

Temperatures will gradually increase from where they`ve been over
the past day or two; however, they are expected to remain below
normal in the low to mid 80s. For comparison, normal high
temperatures are in the upper 80s to around 90 for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions expected at each TAF site today; however, a mid
level ceiling around 4-6kft is expected around CGI/PAH/OWB. A
few showers may approach PAH, but should remain south of OWB. As
moisture increase tonight, some patchy fog may develop and
decided to at least mention a minor reduction in visibility late
tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC