Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
918 FXUS63 KPAH 040914 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 414 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this morning through late tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat. - The thunderstorms will produce heavy rain, and areas of flash flooding are possible across parts of Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, far Northwest Kentucky, and Southwest Indiana. The Flood Watch has been expanded, and remains in effect through late tonight. - Sultry heat and humidity will continue through early tonight for southern portions of the area, and a Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CDT. - Drying out with less hot and humid conditions this weekend. The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms are moving northeastward in Southwest Illinois and in the far northeast corner of the Quad State. Fog developed at multiple sites along the I-64 corridor, but any showers and storms should clear it out, at least temporarily, with some visibility reductions through the early morning possible in areas that dodge early morning rain. Models agree fairly well on the progression of an MCS in eastern Kansas through Missouri into Illinois, with a trend towards the bulk of this system passing north of the Quad State. A boundary moving through should yield at least a few showers and storms this morning, and a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Instability will develop quickly today, but shear is quite weak, leaving damaging winds the primary severe weather hazard. With morning rainfall coming primarily from a north- south oriented line moving eastward rather than training storms, the flooding potential this morning is somewhat reduced though additional storms remain later. With the storm track shifting northward, partial clearing becomes more likely with temperatures in southern portions of the Quad State reaching the lower 90s. With dew points in the mid to upper 70s with localized 80 values, heat index values above 105 are fairly likely. With the upward adjustment in heat index values in the forecast, and especially considering that today is an outdoor activity focused holiday, a Heat Advisory has been issued for most of Southeast Missouri, southern portions of Western Kentucky, and part of far Southern Illinois through 9 PM this evening. Heavy rain produced flooding issues in Southeast Missouri and Southwest Indiana Wednesday evening. Soils are more primed for additional heavy rain. Precipitable water values remain around 2 inches, enabling heavy rain rates. A few models produce afternoon thunderstorms as, with high instability, any residual boundary could easily fire additional storms. On average, models are drier for the early evening hours, but unfortunately, storms cannot be ruled out. An MCS develops in Missouri during the evening, then progresses eastward as the cold front shifts towards the Quad State. Models suggest this MCS will be trending weaker in the Quad State, limiting severe weather potential (a slight risk covers much of Southeast Missouri, while the rest of the Quad State is in a marginal risk), but heavy rain remains a concern. Due to the multiple chances of heavy rain, and taking into account locations such as the Ozarks and Southwest Indiana which had flooding issues yesterday evening, the Flood Watch has been expanded southwestward and eastward to cover those areas, as soils are more susceptible to additional rainfall. A cold frontal passage early Friday brings an end to precipitation. As high pressure moves in, cooler and less humid conditions make for a pleasant weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s. The forecast becomes complicated next week as a trough deepens in the Plains and a ridge to the southeast pushes off to the east. A boundary with the trough brings shower and storm chances late Monday into Tuesday. The shifting of the ridge may enable Hurricane Beryl to turn more northward towards Texas. Uncertainty beyond that is fairly high due to model spread on how far southward the trough digs, but there is potential for moisture from the storm to be drawn northward and contribute to rain chances the middle of next week. The forecast trends towards some warming and moistening of air next week but to what extent will need clarifying, especially with regards to contributions from Beryl. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Shower and storm activity has trended lighter across the area though remains, mainly in the Kentucky Pennyrile. Fog development is possible in the north, particularly at climatologically favored sites. The next round of showers and storms moves through in the morning, mainly as a line sweeping through while training showers are looking likely to be north of the I-64 corridor. A period of less shower coverage for the afternoon and early evening gives way to another round of storms entering late evening and continuing into the overnight hours. MVFR cigs are more likely during the day in the north but are possible at times in the south. Fairly calm winds through the overnight hours increase to 6-10 kts out of the southwest during the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>087. Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ088-089-092>094. MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>109. Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ014-018-019. Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>006-008-009-012-017-022. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...ATL