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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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706 FXUS63 KPAH 162020 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon mainly to the south of a Poplar Bluff Missouri to Madisonville Kentucky line. A stray strong storm with gusty winds remains possible. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push eastward across the Quad State tonight. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible. The Flood Watch will continue as is through 7 AM Wednesday. - A cooler and much less humid air mass will remain over the Quad State from Thursday through early next week. - A small chance of thunderstorms returns Sunday and increases through next Tuesday. At this time, severe storms and widespread heavy rainfall are not anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The Quad State will be in weak cyclonic flow aloft in the base of an upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. Two MCVs will impact the region through tonight. The first is responsible for ongoing flash flooding in Jefferson and Perry counties in southern Illinois. It will ride along I-64 through sunset and force scattered showers and storms over southern portions of the region, generally south of a Poplar Bluff Missouri to Madisonville Kentucky line. The shear is weak and instability is considerably lesser than expected due to the ample cloud cover. A stray strong to severe storm with gusty winds cannot be ruled out. The second MCV is located over southeast Kansas and will ride eastward across the Quad State later tonight. It will likely generate an area of showers and thunderstorms with torrential rainfall as it moves through the region. The exact zone of heaviest rainfall is hard to call, but in general, still seems to be across the north. To this point the flooding concern has been contained within the existing Flood Watch and the 1-2" additional QPF is mostly within it, so will leave it alone and let it go to expiration at 7 AM. The cold front will push southeast through the Quad State Wednesday. Although clouds could once again hamper heating ahead of it to some extent, a juicy air mass should remain and allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms along and ahead of the front. Shear will once again be limited, and instability may be as well, so organized severe storms are not expected at this time. Heavy rainfall will be more isolated and generally southeast the heavy rainfall expected through tonight, so flooding concerns will also be limited Wednesday. For Thursday through the weekend, the Quad State will be under the influence of a persistent trough aloft and dry high pressure at the surface. This will keep the area dry and downright pleasant through at least Saturday. Highs will be in the lower half of the 80s with low humidity and lows will be around 60. Some PoPs return to the forecast Sunday as a short wave trough settles over the central Plains and the air mass tries in vain to modify. The PoPs then ramp up to likely levels by next Tuesday afternoon, as southwest flow aloft increases over the region. The prospects for rainfall before then are rather slim, despite the NBM PoPs. Temperatures will remain below normal through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 KCGI and KPAH are most likely to experience a thunderstorm with MVFR or lower conditions this afternoon. Most of the area should be VFR by 00Z and stay that way until the next round of convection arrives in the late evening and overnight hours. Some IFR or lower ceilings will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning. Southwest winds may gust 20-25kts at times this afternoon at the northern sites. Otherwise, winds outside of thunderstorms should be light. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ILZ075>078-080>089. MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107-108. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ014-018-019. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS