025
FXUS63 KPAH 050831
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early
  morning. A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging
  wind the main threat. Thunderstorms will also produce heavy
  rainfall, and minor flooding is possible.

- Drying out with cooler and less humid conditions this
  weekend. The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An MCS is moving across Southeast Missouri, projected to bring
showers and storms through the remainder of the Quad State
through mid-morning. The stronger storm activity had been
confined to the southernmost two rows of counties in SEMO,
though a storm flaring up in Perry County shows there remains
potential in the north. Over a quarter of Wayne County, MO
without power as a result of strong downburst winds. There is
plenty of moisture, and enough instability and shear to, with an
assist from a favorable positioning near the upper level jet,
produce a few strong to severe storms. A few more strong to
severe gusts are possible. Complicating matters are scattered
thunderstorms entering into the Jackson Purchase area of
Kentucky ahead of the line. This group of storms looks to be
taking over for having the stronger updrafts in the south.
Breezy winds gusting to 20-35 mph have lingered for an hour at
Poplar Bluff and appear to be doing the same for other locations
on this track. The progressive nature of these storms has so
far kept the high PWAT driven rain rates from producing more
than advisory flooding, though isolated flooding issues remain
possible.

A cold frontal passage moves through this morning, bringing an
end to precipitation. Drier air moves into the region along with
high pressure, resulting in much more pleasant conditions for
the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s along with lows
and dew points in the 60s.

A complicated pattern exists for next week. A trough dips well
southward into the Plains, pushing the ridge off to the east.
This will enable Hurricane Beryl to turn more northward towards
Texas. A boundary will set up, enabling moisture to funnel
northeastward, but models suggesting this pattern vary in
north-south positioning of the boundary and this is long range
for Beryl. For now, daily chances of slight chance to chance
showers and storms are in the forecast for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A broken line of storms moving across southern Missouri will
continue shifting eastward through the night. If the storms
maintain current intensity they will reach CGI around 7Z,
PAH/MVN around 8Z and EVV/OWB around 9-10Z. Gusty winds and
heavy downpours are the main threats. This will also result in
reduced visibility and lowered ceilings as the storms pass
through. Improving conditions can be expected through the day
Friday into Friday evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>087.
MO...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>109.
IN...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT /6 AM EDT/ early this morning for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for KYZ014-018-
     019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...KC