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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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400 FXUS63 KPAH 051727 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early morning. A strong storm or two are possible. Thunderstorms will also produce heavy rainfall, and minor flooding is possible. - Drying out with cooler and less humid conditions this weekend. The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 An MCS is moving across Southeast Missouri, projected to bring showers and storms through the remainder of the Quad State through mid-morning. The stronger storm activity had been confined to the southernmost two rows of counties in SEMO, though a storm flaring up in Perry County shows there remains potential in the north. Over a quarter of Wayne County, MO without power as a result of strong downburst winds. There is plenty of moisture, and enough instability and shear to, with an assist from a favorable positioning near the upper level jet, produce a few strong to severe storms. A few more strong to severe gusts are possible. Complicating matters are scattered thunderstorms entering into the Jackson Purchase area of Kentucky ahead of the line. This group of storms looks to be taking over for having the stronger updrafts in the south. Breezy winds gusting to 20-35 mph have lingered for an hour at Poplar Bluff and appear to be doing the same for other locations on this track. The progressive nature of these storms has so far kept the high PWAT driven rain rates from producing more than advisory flooding, though isolated flooding issues remain possible. A cold frontal passage moves through this morning, bringing an end to precipitation. Drier air moves into the region along with high pressure, resulting in much more pleasant conditions for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s along with lows and dew points in the 60s. A complicated pattern exists for next week. A trough dips well southward into the Plains, pushing the ridge off to the east. This will enable Hurricane Beryl to turn more northward towards Texas. A boundary will set up, enabling moisture to funnel northeastward, but models suggesting this pattern vary in north-south positioning of the boundary and this is long range for Beryl. For now, daily chances of slight chance to chance showers and storms are in the forecast for much of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 MVFR bases early this afternoon expected to rise above VFR by mid afternoon with VFR conditions expected through Saturday. Northwesterly winds this afternoon will become calm this evening picking back up late Sat afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...AD