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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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571 FXUS64 KOUN 192016 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 316 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Our upcoming "wetter" weekend now in the short term and forecast is still on track although has slightly changed with the convection strength when it initially starts, surface boundaries and rainfall amounts. Still seeing a weak trough digging through the U.S. Great Plains & Upper Midwest Regions from the main upper jet stream flow over Canada, and this trough will still provide the upper support for rain/storms this weekend. Tonight will see another MCS over the Central through Southern High Plains as this disturbance rotates through the upper ridge persisting over the U.S. Southwest. Tonight`s MCS on the higher plains may also be enhanced by a surface trough stretched across western Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and this surface boundary may move into our area late Saturday. This MCS is expected to develop in a high CAPE/strong sheared environment with upper moderate to low end instability and up to 40 kts effective shear. Models runs have also been consistent with a southerly low- level jet developing tonight, strongest at 850 mb with the eastern extent of the jet maxima over our western CWA. Conditions will be favorable for organized severe storms with this MCS as well as a potential for supercells early in the event. Right now expecting the highest severe risk tonight over western Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle but some of these organized severe storms in the northwest flow aloft could be steered into northwest Oklahoma before weakening into a less unstable and weaker sheared environment. As a result, northwest Oklahoma will be in a Marginal severe risk area with damaging wind gusts as the main severe risk. D-CAPE values expected will be sufficient for severe winds producing damaging downdrafts. As far as timing, most CAMs are projecting around midnight although one of the solutions HRW NSSL is an hour earlier. Confidence is high we shouldn`t see any late afternoon convection out west due to a strong cap, and confidence increases for the timing of this MCS in our area later in the evening toward midnight. The MCS will have weakened to below severe across the remainder of western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas through the remaining morning hours. After the MCS activity on Saturday morning, expecting a series of shortwaves coming through the aforementioned trough to initiate rain with more elevated convection during the afternoon extending into central Oklahoma. Overall not expecting any severe weather with these higher-based storms. However this would be conditional should any outflow boundaries from earlier storms linger resulting in more unstable surface-based storms to reinitiate. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Storm POPs will increase into southeast Oklahoma by Saturday evening and remain widespread Saturday night and Sunday across our area possibly becoming more surface-based with the aforementioned surface boundary pushing through and stalling across northern Texas on Monday. Overall our CWA will be getting some accumulating but not heavy rain amounts with total accumulations from Saturday through Monday between 0.25 to 0.50. Grand Ensemble probabilities are only 10-30% of receiving greater than a half inch of total rainfall during that 3-day time period. The main upper jet still expected to remain in an Omega blocking pattern through mid-week keeping the weak trough over the Southern Plains. This will keep us in a wetter pattern for Monday with the higher probabilities across our southern CWA near the surface front into Tuesday. The troughing will also keep our temperatures not as hot yet cooler than seasonably normal as well as keeping those heat indices down. By Wednesday on, the upper trough will have moved out and replaced by the persisting ridge over the U.S. Southwest. Along with a return of south winds, will start to see a warming trend with temperatures gradually returning to normal for the latter half of next week. Looking beyond at the Climate Prediction Centers 8-14 day outlook, much of our area is outlooked for "Near Normal" temperatures with northwest Oklahoma leaning 30-40% leaning "Above Normal." Guidance suggests a gradual warming trend going into August. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions with fairly light and variable winds are in place across the area this afternoon. This is expected to continue for the most part, outside of thunderstorm activity which could bring brief visibility reductions and erratic winds. Chances for storms are expected after midnight in northwest Oklahoma, with lower confidence in thunderstorms further south and east Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 89 68 85 / 10 30 60 30 Hobart OK 70 95 67 89 / 20 30 50 20 Wichita Falls TX 71 95 70 91 / 10 30 40 40 Gage OK 67 92 65 86 / 30 30 30 20 Ponca City OK 66 84 67 85 / 10 30 60 30 Durant OK 67 93 70 89 / 0 0 30 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...08