722
FXUS64 KOUN 141846
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
146 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across southern Kansas
this morning. These appear to be associated with isentropic ascent
that is augmented by the low-level jet. There is a chance (~20%
at a given location) that these showers and storms will impact
northern Oklahoma early this morning before they dissipate.

Otherwise, the hot weather will continue today as the Southern
Plains remains on the eastern periphery of a ~599 dam mid-level
ridge and associated low-level thermal ridge.

The low-level thermal ridge is forecast to strengthen and expand
farther to the east today. For example, the 850 mb temperature on
last night`s 00Z Norman Sounding was 20.6 deg C. For this
afternoon, the 850 mb temperature is progged to rise to ~24 deg C
at Norman. As a result, forecast high temperatures are 3 to 5 deg
F higher today. High temperatures should range from the mid 90s
to mid 100s deg F. Air temperatures or heat index values will be
near to above 105 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma,
where a Heat Advisory is in effect.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday and Tuesday will likely be hotter across a larger part of
the area as the low-level thermal ridge advects to the northeast
ahead of cold front slowly moving southward across the Plains.
Heat Advisories will likely be needed on both days. Depending on
the timing the next cold front, a Heat Advisory may also be needed
for parts of the area on Wednesday.

By Wednesday into Thursday, both deterministic models and
ensemble members still indicate a significant pattern change is
likely across the Southern Plains as the synoptic-scale pattern is
forecast to transition to northwest flow as the ridge amplifies
to the west and a trough amplifies to the east.

Northwest flow will allow for a cold front to advance southward
into Oklahoma and north Texas Wednesday into Thursday with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler air mass--likely
below average temperatures--will advect southward into the Plains.
Probabilistic guidance indicates a >50% chance that high
temperatures will only be in the 80s deg F across the northern
half of Oklahoma by Thursday. There is a reasonable chance this
pattern will persist into the upcoming weekend with not as hot
weather and a continued chance for rain.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected until 151800. South to southwest winds
will be gusty during the daytime periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76 103  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 103  79 103 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75 105  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77 106  79 105 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         77 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>013-017>020.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09