533
FXUS64 KOUN 111138
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Models in good agreement with the mid-level shortwave currently
rotating through the ridge just lee of the Colorado/New Mexico
Rockies to retrograde and dig into the Southern Plains as an open
trough.  Models also in good agreement with strong mid-level ascent
in the trough as seen in the Omega fields at 700 mb and strong
mixing off the surface by late afternoon with some models projecting
low-end moderate surface based instability for a potential of
convection developing.  Although synoptic scale deterministic models
as well as NBM stay dry for any QPF, nearly all the CAMs are in good
agreement for some isolated convection developing between the latter
half of this morning and through the afternoon across a swath of all
of central Oklahoma including southwest Oklahoma by mid afternoon. A
few caveats though as mid-level moisture may not be sufficient and
uncertainty of afternoon heating/mixing breaking or holding the weak
cap? As a result, will keep the POPs very low (15%).  Any storms
that do pulse up would be weak, short-lived and isolated, and very
weak shear would deter any kind of severe organization.

Otherwise, our heating trend persists today as south winds will
start increasing this afternoon.  Temperatures are expected to rise
above climatically normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s
expected. Southcentral through southeast Oklahoma may feel a bit
muggy with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints while the rest of our
area not as muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Upper ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Western
U.S. extending to the Central and Southern Plains as pressure
heights will continue to rise each day as we get hotter, and that
ridge expected to build over the entire southern half of the country
by early next week.  South winds may start getting a bit breezy by
Friday into the next week enhanced by low-level jet firing up every
night. Did increase the windspeeds slightly higher in the forecast
for Friday and Saturday afternoons using the NBM 90th percentile
winds. Northern and all of western Oklahoma through western north
Texas could start seeing triple digit highs of 100-102 degrees by
Friday expanding into parts of central through southeast Oklahoma.
As far as moisture fields, the ECMWF continues to be the most
aggressive with the low-level gulf moisture transport up through the
Mississippi Delta Region keeping dewpoints a couple of degrees
higher across southeast Oklahoma although in fairly good agreement
across the remainder of our CWA.  NBM is even more aggressive than
the ECMWF with lower 70s dewpoint across southeast Oklahoma although
in fairly good consistency with the other two models.  Based on the
NBM, portions of the eastern half of our CWA could see heat index
value at or exceeding 105 degrees on Sunday through Wednesday. Still
not seeing any excessive heating but can`t rule out a few heat
advisories.

As far as rain/storms, the latter half of next week could be wet at
times beginning Tuesday night as models this far out suggest an
inverted trough may come up from western Texas with another system
moving across the Upper Midwest Region possibly pushing a backdoor
cool front through our area late in the week.  Although still far
out, we could finally see a break in our short heatwave around
Thursday with temperatures returning to more seasonably average
(lower to mid 90s).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms continue to drift
south across north central and central Oklahoma. For most TAF
sites, the probability of having one of these showers in the
vicinity is too low (20 percent) to include in the TAFs, with the
exception of KSWO where the current showers/storms are still
expected to be in the vicinity past 12Z. These showers and storms
should decrease and dissipate later this morning, but isolated
showers and storms are expected to redevelop this afternoon,
although again with the expected isolated nature, the probability
at any location is still too low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  73  96  73 /  20  20   0   0
Hobart OK         98  71  99  72 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  74  99  73 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           99  69 101  72 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     99  71 100  74 /  20  20   0   0
Durant OK         96  73  97  73 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26