Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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430 FXUS64 KOUN 031711 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Light rain showers continue across portions of northern and west central OK. This activity is expected to continue into early this afternoon although coverage could diminish some. Have added some PoPs further south compared to the previous forecast, generally just south of I-40 with some chance (30%) PoPs near/just north of I-40. This is the edge of the cloud cover where a differential heating boundary could develop. If this does occur, storm development will be possible along this boundary. Otherwise, heat continues across portions of the fa today. No changes currently planned for the heat advisory but will continue to monitor trends to see if an extension of the advisory a little bit further north is needed in central OK given the orientation of the clouds/rain. Fire weather conditions continue to be a concern in parts of southwest OK/western north TX this afternoon where RH is expected to drop to the 20-25% range and vegetation is dry although winds are currently not expected to be as breezy as yesterday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the cold front are expected to continue off and on through the day across portions of northern and western Oklahoma. The degree of destabilization this afternoon is somewhat in question given the amount of lingering clouds and showers expected, but if we can see some stronger heating (most likely on the southern periphery of morning activity) then there would be a risk once again of strong to marginally severe wind gusts. Overall this threat appears to be a lower probability than yesterday. Elsewhere to the south of the front, another day of hot temperatures is expected, with heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees once again. A heat advisory is in effect for these areas. Greater uncertainty exists on the northern end of the advisory where greater cloud cover could impact heating, but did not make any changes to the existing advisory area at this time. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 By Thursday attention will turn to a stronger cold front which will serve as a focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development. Chances for storms will initially be highest (40-50%) along the E-W oriented front across northern and central Oklahoma by late afternoon into early evening, then expand southward overnight. This could potentially impact outdoor holiday plans for July 4th, with a risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy rain, and frequent lighting with the strongest storms. In addition to thunderstorm chances, Thursday will also see another day of hot temperatures with heat indices of 105 to 110 expected across most of the area outside of northwest Oklahoma. Have gone ahead and issued a heat advisory for these areas. Temperatures will cool behind the front to near average for this time of year Friday into the weekend across much of the area as the center of the mid to upper ridge shifts westward and troughing sets up over the central and eastern US. Models then show another front approaching the area by late Sunday into Monday, which could bring another round of showers and storms with it and drop temperatures another few degrees. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected with mid/high clouds across at least parts of the area throughout much of the TAF period. Light showers will continue across portions of northern/west central OK this afternoon. Storm development will be possible late this afternoon into tonight mainly along and north of I-40. However, chances too low for mention in some of the TAFs at this time. Winds will be shifting throughout much of the TAF period with a shift towards the NE starting Thursday morning as a cold front begins to move across parts of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 100 79 101 71 / 20 10 30 40 Hobart OK 101 81 102 70 / 20 10 20 40 Wichita Falls TX 102 81 103 75 / 0 0 10 40 Gage OK 87 70 92 63 / 50 30 20 30 Ponca City OK 91 73 97 65 / 60 30 30 30 Durant OK 100 79 100 74 / 0 0 0 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ013-018>020- 022>048-050>052. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ023>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...25