688
FXUS64 KOUN 160353
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Warm tonight with lows in the 70s to around 80 across the area. Some
showers/storms could move into northern parts of the fa overnight
into Tuesday morning with a boundary moving into parts of the area
by Tuesday morning.

The position of this boundary will have an impact on temperatures
and rain chances Tuesday leading to a bit of uncertainty, especially
in the temp forecast. Depending on how far south the boundary goes,
clouds and potentially rain will lead to slightly cooler
temperatures north of the boundary. Ahead of the boundary, another
day of triple digit temperatures and higher heat index values are
expected, especially in the immediate area ahead of the front where
the thermal ridge (pre-frontal torch) is expected to set up. With
this in mind, a heat advisory was issued for the southern half or so
of the fa for Tuesday afternoon. The heat advisory may need to go
further north with north central OK most likely but with uncertainty
of the boundary and clouds/rain will let later shifts take a look at
it to see if have a better idea of frontal position. Another thing
later shifts will need to take a look at is the potential need for
an Excessive Heat Warning, especially in the axis of the pre-frontal
torch/thermal ridge where heat index values could climb to around
110 but with the uncertainties of this position will hold off on
that for now as well.

The boundary will also have the potential for a focus for isolated
to scattered shower/storm development late Tuesday afternoon into
the evening hours. Large dewpoint depressions are expected leading
to Inverted-V profiles so some of these storms could become severe
with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain the primary concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Another round of showers/storms will be possible later Tuesday
evening into the overnight hours. With upslope flow north of the
previously mentioned boundary, storms are expected to develop in the
High Plains in E CO/W KS. These storms could then develop into
thunderstorm complex that moves across portions of OK Tuesday night,
with the highest chances across northern OK. Some strong to severe
storms will be possible with this activity as well with damaging
wind gusts the primary concern.

Models continue to show the pattern shifting the middle of the week
with the mid/upper ridge amplifying in the western U.S. and NW flow
developing over the Plains. A cold front with cooler air behind it
is expected to move across the region Wednesday. This cooler air
will bring a break to the heat. The NW flow is currently forecast to
continue into at least the weekend which will lead to highs in the
80s and low 90s (near or below average) for the latter half of the
week into the weekend.

The NW flow and cool front Wednesday will continue rain chances
across at least parts of the area Wednesday into Thursday and then
again over the weekend when a storm system moving through the flow
affects the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for a majority of the
forecast with an increase in mid-high level cloud cover. High
based TSRA will be possible through 12Z mainly around KWWR, with
SHRA being mentioned farther south and east. This activity would
be focused near and just behind a prefrontal trough that will at
least temporarily weaken and switch southern winds to northerly
across at least northern Oklahoma. TSRA appears possible after
18Z across central Oklahoma near stalling boundary, so will
include PROB30 there. TSRA most likely late in the forecast period
across northern and western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 103  75  89 /   0  20  20  30
Hobart OK         77 105  74  92 /   0  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  79 105  79  97 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           75 100  68  87 /  20  20  50  30
Ponca City OK     80 103  72  86 /  20  30  40  40
Durant OK         78 102  78  98 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ016>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11