Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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916 FXUS66 KOTX 082130 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 230 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot temperatures will continue through the upcoming week. The hottest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread triple digit heat. Breezy to gusty winds return Wednesday with increasing fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... ...ONGOING HEAT WAVE DELIVERING NEAR-RECORD HEAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ...INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Key messages for the week: - Very hot temperatures are here and will continue through Wednesday. - Tuesday and Wednesday will deliver the hottest afternoon highs and warmest overnight lows. - Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for some parts of the region Monday through Wednesday. - Temperatures cool by 5 to 10 degrees Thursday then warm again heading into the weekend. - No precipitation is in sight. Rest of today through Wednesday: An unusually strong and persistent ridge of high pressure will continue to bring hot and dry conditions across the Inland Northwest. The hottest days will be on Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures ranging from 100 to 110 degrees regionwide. Low temperatures will cool into the 50s and low 60s in the northern mountain valleys, but will struggle to cool below the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. With temperatures this high during the daytime and minimal relief overnight, it is advised to take the heat seriously and follow precautions to avoid heat stress. This includes taking breaks often, staying hydrated, and accessing air conditioned areas when possible. Be sure to check in on your furry friends, elders, and others sensitive to heat. As for fire weather, Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for the Cascades and Pioneer Fire. Rapid fire growth is likely given the hot temperatures, poor overnight RH recoveries, and unstable weather conditions. In addition, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Central WA Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will be light to start off the week, but will pick up once the ridge begins to break down late in the day on Wednesday. After several very hot days and with dry air still in place, any wind will be a concern and could allow new and existing fires to spread quickly. Central WA will see the strongest winds with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, but the rest of the region will experience a noticeable increase in winds as well. Breezy winds will recur each afternoon through the end of the week. The other thing we will have to monitor for with the shortwave disturbances moving in between later Wednesday into Wednesday night is dry lightning. There is a lot of elevated instability per some guidance and there is a slight increase in moisture ahead of the shortwave disturbance. However that moisture may outrun the disturbance. Overall there are a few ingredients that, if they come together just right, could lead some elevated dry convection. It may just result in some accas/floccus clouds and that is the more likely scenario. However the SREF shows about a 3-10% chance of some dry t-storms, so it gives us at least some pause to keep an eye out. With that said, there is a 90-97% chance that there will be no dry thunderstorms. Any lightning in this environment would not be good. Looking out in the longer terms, toward next Monday to Wednesday (15th to 17th) a better push of moisture and disturbances may bring a better threat of shower/t-storms, but still not big rain producers. Confidence in that is low too. With such warm temperatures and high mixing heights, we`ll see quite a jump in the amount of smoke generated by the Pioneer Fire south of Stehekin. This will likely result in poor air quality for the Lake Chelan area. Each night, the smoke will settle in the lake basin and drift down toward Manson. During the day, the smoke will shift back toward the north end of the lake. There is a chance the smoke will seep over into the Methow Valley as well. The latest air quality readings and smoke outlooks can be found at fire.airnow.gov. Wednesday night through Sunday: Our stretch of hot and dry weather will stick around for the foreseeable future, though the heat won`t be quite as extreme after Wednesday. High temperatures will cool 5 to 10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday, putting most locations in the 90s. The deeper Columbia Basin, Okanogan Valley, and L-C Valley may still see a few thermometer readings in the 100s. Low temperatures will be cooler as well, dropping back into the 50s and 60s by Thursday night. The "cooldown" may not last long though. Most models are showing temperatures rebounding heading into the weekend. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites. Local reductions in visibility possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to smoke from the Pioneer Fire, especially in the overnight/early morning hours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions, except near Lake Chelan from wildfire smoke. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 67 103 70 104 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 66 99 69 101 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 63 99 66 100 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 72 109 76 109 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 59 101 61 101 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 62 96 64 98 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 69 97 71 99 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 67 107 71 107 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 73 106 76 103 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 70 108 71 107 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Western Chelan County. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698). && $$