Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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733 FXUS66 KOTX 100437 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 937 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot temperatures will continue through the upcoming week. The hottest days will be today and Wednesday with widespread triple digit heat. Breezy to gusty winds return Wednesday with increasing fire weather concerns. Slightly cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and Friday, before warming up again this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... ...ONGOING HEAT WAVE DELIVERING NEAR-RECORD HEAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ...INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Key messages for the rest of the week: - Very hot temperatures are here and will continue through Wednesday. - Temperatures cool by 5 to 10 degrees Thursday then warm again heading into the weekend. - No precipitation is in sight. Rest of today through Wednesday: An unusually strong and persistent ridge of high pressure will continue to bring hot and dry conditions across the Inland Northwest. Today was the first day of the highest temperatures we`ll see with the heat wave. Tomorrow will be the second and final day of peak heating with afternoon temperatures ranging from 100 to 110 degrees regionwide. Low temperatures will cool into the 50s and low 60s in the northern mountain valleys, but will struggle to cool below the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. With temperatures this high during the daytime and minimal relief overnight, it is advised to take the heat seriously and follow precautions to avoid heat stress. This includes taking breaks often, staying hydrated, and accessing air conditioned areas when possible. Be sure to check in on your furry friends, elders, and others sensitive to heat. As for fire weather, Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for the Cascades and Pioneer Fire. Rapid fire growth is likely given the hot temperatures, poor overnight RH recoveries, and unstable weather conditions. In addition, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Cascades and Central WA Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will be light through tonight, but will pick up once the ridge begins to break down late in the day on Wednesday. After several very hot days and with dry air still in place, any wind will be a concern and could allow new and existing fires to spread quickly. Central WA will see the strongest winds with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, but the rest of the region will experience a noticeable increase in winds as well. Breezy winds will recur each afternoon through the end of the week. With such warm temperatures and high mixing heights, we`ll see quite a jump in the amount of smoke generated by the Pioneer Fire south of Stehekin beginning late this afternoon. This will likely result in poor air quality for the Lake Chelan area. Each night, the smoke will settle in the lake basin and drift down toward Manson. During the day, the smoke will shift back toward the north end of the lake. There is a chance the smoke will seep over into the Methow Valley as well. The latest air quality readings and smoke outlooks can be found at fire.airnow.gov. Wednesday night through Monday: Our stretch of hot and dry weather will stick around for the foreseeable future, though the heat won`t be quite as extreme after Wednesday. High temperatures will cool 5 to 10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday, putting most locations in the 90s. The deeper Columbia Basin, Okanogan Valley, and L-C Valley may still see a few thermometer readings in the 100s. Low temperatures will be cooler as well, dropping back into the 50s and 60s by Thursday night. Models are suggesting weak ridging building back in heading into the weekend and early next week, which would allow a slight rebound in temperatures back into the upper 90s to just over 100. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in visibility possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to smoke from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy to gusty westerly winds expected after 18Z Wednesday, particularly at KEAT and KMWH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 68 103 67 96 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 68 100 67 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 64 99 64 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 74 109 72 101 68 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 60 101 58 96 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 64 97 62 92 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 71 98 69 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 69 107 65 99 60 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 74 103 68 98 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 71 107 66 101 65 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Western Chelan County. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698). && $$