Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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999 FXUS66 KOTX 142243 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 343 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... While the extreme heat has eased, it will stay hot, dry and locally breezy through next week. Areas of haze and smoke will linger over the Inland NW from local fires. Temperatures will rebound for the second half of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through next Saturday: Key points: - Heat will continue across the Inland Northwest through the week and into next weekend. - We are monitoring the threat for dry thunderstorms across the region mid-week. Temperatures will stay 5 to 15 degrees above normal for at least the next seven days. A Heat Advisory is in effect over a large portion of the region until 10 PM tonight with temperatures nearing 100 degrees in many locations this afternoon. Overnight lows will be rather warm as well with some locations struggling to cool below the upper 60s. In addition to the Heat Advisory, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through 9 PM tonight for the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee and into the western Columbia Basin due to a combination of very low relative humidity values (in the teens) and breezy winds. Winds will calm down overnight and we`ll remain in a westerly zonal flow regime through the day tomorrow, then a ridge will begin to build over us on Tuesday. Tomorrow will be the coolest day of the forecast, featuring temperatures 2 to 5 degrees cooler than today`s, though "cool" doesn`t feel like an appropriate descriptor when temperatures are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. Once ridging rebuilds on Tuesday, we`ll jump right back up into the upper 90s with a few of our hottest locations over 100 degrees (i.e., Lewiston, Wenatchee, Omak, and the deeper Columbia Basin). After this jump on Tuesday, temperatures will stay put in the upper 90s to just over 100 for the remainder of the week and into next weekend. Smoke from the Pioneer Fire near Lake Chelan and several fires down in Oregon will continue to be blown eastward, resulting in hazy skies for Eastern WA and the ID Panhandle. The good news (unless you live around Lake Chelan) is that the smoke will stay mostly elevated, so degradation of air quality isn`t expected to be an issue except for right around the Lake Chelan area. You can find the latest air quality readings and smoke outlooks at fire.airnow.gov. Speaking of fire and smoke, we are keeping a close eye on what is looking like a concerning fire weather pattern expected on Wednesday. Models are showing a shortwave trough off the coast of California ejecting northeastward into Oregon and Washington, bringing elevated moisture and instability. Current guidance is giving the Inland Northwest a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday. After our extended period of hot and dry weather, fuels will be especially susceptible to ignition, so any lightning we get could cause problems. More on that as it gets closer. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in visibility are possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to smoke from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy winds will continue across the region this afternoon and evening with the strongest winds in the lee of the Cascades. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 93 61 97 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 61 90 59 93 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 58 88 56 93 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 68 99 66 103 69 106 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 54 93 53 95 54 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Sandpoint 57 88 54 93 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Kellogg 64 87 63 92 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 98 61 100 64 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 68 98 68 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 65 101 65 102 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley- Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse - Snake River (Zone 709)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). && $$