Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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193 FXUS66 KOTX 042229 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 329 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weather conditions are expected to be dry and generally clear the next seven days. There will be a long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. It is expected to last through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday: A rather innocent-looking ridge of high pressure remains offshore this afternoon while clear skies and temperatures in the 80s and low 90s prevail across the Inland Northwest. Don`t be fooled by today`s (relatively) mild conditions. That ridge offshore is about to get much stronger, and our temperatures much hotter. For much of the region, today will be the last day highs will be below 90 for at least the next week. Temperatures will begin to climb tomorrow, and by Monday, many locations will see triple digits for the first time this season. Both daytime highs and overnight lows will approach record values several days in a row. A brief period of elevated fire concerns will occur tomorrow afternoon due to a combination of warm, dry conditions and winds picking up through the Cascade gaps. A Fire Weather Watch is in place tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Wenatchee area and the Waterville Plateau. Heading into the weekend, the heat further intensifies. Not only will high temperatures be hotter than anything we`ve seen so far this year, but low temperatures will struggle to drop below the 60s overnight, providing little relief for those who don`t have access to adequate cooling. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week are looking like the warmest days in the forecast period. On both of those days, Lewiston has a 55 percent chance of reaching 110 degrees. Sweltering. Models are hinting at a gradual "cooldown" toward the end of next week as the ridge axis moves eastward into Montana. Temperatures will drop back down into the mid 90s. Not exactly "cool," but marginally more comfortable than triple digits I suppose. Typically ridges that build in from the west such as this one move through much more quickly, so it`s quite unusual to see a heat wave persist over such an extended period of time. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected for the TAF sites through the period. Expect passing high clouds and a few afternoon fair weather cumulus. Winds will be light and generally under 10 mph. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 57 92 61 92 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 56 87 59 88 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 53 87 56 89 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 62 98 64 98 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 50 89 53 89 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 51 85 55 87 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 57 83 60 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 58 98 62 98 63 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 98 66 98 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 60 97 63 97 63 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Western Chelan County. && $$