Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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452 FXUS66 KOTX 051840 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1140 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weather conditions are expected to be dry and generally clear the next seven days. Central Washington will experience a few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. There will be a long duration heatwave today. It is expected to last through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: The upper level ridge of high pressure is well established off the coast of Washington. Overall not much change to the forecast. Ensembles are honing in on the hottest day being Wednesday. The grand ensemble mean max temperatures climb from 32 degrees C today to nearly 41 degrees C by Wednesday at Spokane International AP. By Wednesday, the mean 850 mb temperature forecast peaks at 30C, a feat only pulled off once since 1995 (29 June 2021). Our current forecast calls for 104 degrees at KGEG Wednesday. A slow bleed in temperatures is likely to ensue afterwards, but do not get your hopes up. There is still a 40% chance of 100 degrees or more Thursday, 16% Friday, and 21% Saturday of next week. Will have to keep an eye out for lightning potential and/or any wind events was models are hinting at a weak shortwave late next week. Critical fire weather conditions are expected today in the Cascade gaps. With a 500 mb speed max approaches the region later today, dropping PWATS in the afternoon, increasing 850 mb cold advection, and increasing Cascade gap surface pressure gradients, high resolution models indicate a period in the late afternoon where winds will be 15-20 mph with humidites at 15 to 25%. Any new or existing fires will have the potential to spread rapidly. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Dry northwest flow aloft will continue to promote mostly clear skies through Saturday morning with warming temperatures. Smoke at the Pioneer Fire on the north end of Lake Chelan has become more active. As the night time inversion sets up, drainage winds may push smoke down the lake toward Chelan each evening the next several days. A weak dry cold front will bring a push of stronger winds down the east slopes of the Cascades this afternoon and evening. Winds will increase around 23z and continue through 08z. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible at Wenatchee, Chelan, Entiat, and on the Waterville Plateau. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence for localized visibility reductions due to smoke. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 92 62 92 62 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 87 60 89 61 92 64 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 87 58 89 58 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 97 67 98 66 101 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 89 55 89 55 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 85 56 86 56 90 57 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 84 62 84 62 88 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 98 65 98 65 102 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 98 68 98 70 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 98 64 98 64 102 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Western Chelan County. && $$