Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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484 FXUS66 KOTX 041203 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 503 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weather conditions are expected to be dry and generally fair the next seven days. There will be a long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. It is expected to last through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday: Independence day will feature above temperatures 4 to 7 degrees above normal (low 80s to low 90s) high with very sunny skies. The offshore ridge will continue to deepen today bringing even warmer temperatures to us by the weekend. Temperatures by Friday will be 8-13 degrees above normal (mid 80s to near 100 degrees). Sunday through Wednesday temperatures are forecast to be 13 to 17 degrees above normal (mid 90s to upper 100s). There is an elevated fire threat Friday afternoon in the evening as a dry shortwave increases the Seattle-Wenatchee pressure gradient to 5-8 mb in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will gust up to 25 mph near Wenatchee as RHs are rising into the upper teens to low 20s in the late afternoon to evening hours. HeatRisk increases to "major" by Sunday for all major population centers in central and Eastern Washington. For Monday through Thursday, all major population centers are forecasted to be in the "major" HeatRisk as temperatures will be in the mid 90s to upper 100s with low temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. There is increasing confidence for "Extreme" HeatRisk for the L-C valley and the lower river valleys of central Washington. There is a 55% chance for Lewiston and Clarkston to hit 110 degrees or greater Tuesday! Cluster guidance indicates a slow "cooldown" into the mid 90s by next Friday as the ridge axis is still centered over Montana. The duration of this heatwave is impressive. The current record for consecutive 95+ degrees at Spokane International AP is 10 days in August of 1967. This is hard to beat To be in the top 10 for consecutive 95+ degrees, Spokane International only needs to be 95+ degrees for 5 days which is what our forecast is calling for. /Butler && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected for the TAF sites through the period. Expect passing high clouds and a few afternoon fair weather cumulus. Winds will be light and generally under 10 mph. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 87 57 93 61 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 83 55 88 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 83 54 89 57 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 92 62 98 66 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 84 50 90 53 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 81 51 88 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 79 59 86 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 92 58 99 63 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 91 65 99 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 60 98 63 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Western Chelan County. && $$