244
FXUS66 KOTX 050506
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1006 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather conditions are expected to be dry and generally clear the
next seven days. There will be a long duration heatwave starting
after July 4th. It is expected to last through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday: A rather innocent-looking ridge of high
pressure remains offshore this afternoon while clear skies and
temperatures in the 80s and low 90s prevail across the Inland
Northwest. Don`t be fooled by today`s (relatively) mild conditions.
That ridge offshore is about to get much stronger, and our
temperatures much hotter. For much of the region, today will be the
last day highs will be below 90 for at least the next week.
Temperatures will begin to climb tomorrow, and by Monday, many
locations will see triple digits for the first time this season.
Both daytime highs and overnight lows will approach record values
several days in a row.

A brief period of elevated fire concerns will occur tomorrow
afternoon due to a combination of warm, dry conditions and winds
picking up through the Cascade gaps. A Fire Weather Watch is in
place tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Wenatchee area and the
Waterville Plateau.

Heading into the weekend, the heat further intensifies. Not only
will high temperatures be hotter than anything we`ve seen so far
this year, but low temperatures will struggle to drop below the 60s
overnight, providing little relief for those who don`t have access
to adequate cooling. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week are looking
like the warmest days in the forecast period. On both of those days,
Lewiston has a 55 percent chance of reaching 110 degrees. Sweltering.

Models are hinting at a gradual "cooldown" toward the end of next
week as the ridge axis moves eastward into Montana. Temperatures
will drop back down into the mid 90s. Not exactly "cool," but
marginally more comfortable than triple digits I suppose. Typically
ridges that build in from the west such as this one move through
much more quickly, so it`s quite unusual to see a heat wave persist
over such an extended period of time. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mainly clear skies will be the norm across the Inland
Northwest through Friday evening. Smoke at the Pioneer Fire on the
north end of Lake Chelan has become more active. As the night time
inversion sets up, drainage winds may push smoke down the lake
toward Chelan each evening the next several days.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions. As fire danger increases, localized visibility
reductions due to smoke may become more of an issue in upcoming
days. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  92  61  92  60  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  56  87  59  88  60  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        53  87  56  89  56  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       62  98  64  98  65 101 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       50  89  53  89  51  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      51  85  55  87  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        57  83  60  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     58  98  62  98  63 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      63  98  66  98  68 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           60  97  63  97  63 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday
     for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin
     Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).

     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Western
     Chelan County.

&&

$$