792
FXUS61 KOKX 071815
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
215 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary or surface trough will remain in close
proximity to the area to into Tuesday. A series of frontal
boundaries will then impact the region for much of the week and
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
No significant changes made with this update.

A stalled front remains across the forecast area. Aloft, a
longwave trough will be centered across the mid section of the
country, with a subtropical high anchored over the western
Atlantic. This will keep the area very warm, humid, and
generally dry.

With the aforementioned boundary and greatest instability along
the coast today, latest CAMs do so show a few weak showers
and/or thunderstorms. For the time though, plan to keep the
mention out due to a strengthening mid level cap and relatively
dry low-levels with inverted-V type soundings.

Along the coast, especially across eastern LI/SE CT, areas of
fog will continue and might not completely clear out along the
immediate coastline today.

Highs today will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
warmest across the urban corridor and into the interior. The
immediate south shore of LI will be cooler. Heat indices will
be lower today due to some drier air being mixed to the surface
with dew points across the warmest locations dropping into the
mid 60s. Coastal locations will generally remain in the lower
70s. Heat indices will encroach upon 95, mostly in the urban
corridor of NE NJ, but spotty reading of 95 are possible for the
NYC metro. No advisories planned to cover this afternoon.

Light winds with warm and humid air are expected to combine for
another night of low clouds and fog for much of the area east
of NYC tonight. Dewpoints are not expected to be as high as they
were last night, so the extent of any dense fog is uncertain.
Not enough confidence to go with a dense fog advisory at this
point, but this may eventually be needed for these areas east of
the city. Dry, but muggy conditions otherwise for the entire
area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much change during this time as the upper air pattern
features a longwave trough centered over the mid section of the
country and a subtropical high over the western Atlantic. There
will be a gradual eastward translation during this time. Very
warm and humid conditions will persist. Dew points will come
back up everywhere into the lower 70s. There is increasing
likelihood of widespread 95 or higher heat indices, especially
from NYC and points north and west. Heat advisories may be
issued later today for the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

Fog/stratus will continue during the overnights across LI and
coastal CT. Some of this may begin to expand farther in from the
coast Monday night into Tuesday morning. Warm season fog
typically is more of a coastal issue due to the warm, humid air
moving across the cooler nearshore waters. However, with dew
points in the lower 70s, light winds, and mainly clear skies, it
may be factor even inland.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be reintroduced Tuesday
afternoon as the airmass moistens and destabilizes. Best chances
will be north and west of the NYC metro. Moderate cape, weak
shear environment favors slow moving cells with the potential
for downpours and pulse severe. The enhanced moisture with a
stationary or nearly stationary front will bring a chance of
widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well. There`s even
a potential localized flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A front lingers in the vicinity of the CWA Wednesday into Wednesday
night with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing under a
mid-level ridge. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s to low-90s.

Beryl, which is currently on track to make landfall in Texas, is
predicted by the NHC to rapidly weaken and devolve into a post-
tropical depression by the time it reaches Arkansas late Tuesday.
From there it will weaken further and track towards and through the
Great Lakes region on Thursday and Friday before dissolving
completely. At the same time, a strong subtropical high over the
Atlantic will be located directly to our east. The pressure gradient
between these two opposing systems may lead to a 30-40 kt LLJ jet
developing over our region Thursday and/or Friday which could lead
to stronger S-SW flow with breezy winds. Blended NBM with NBM 90th
to show the possibly increasing wind gusts in this time frame,
bringing gusts of around 20-25 mph. The persistent S-SW flow created
by these two systems could lead to a conveyer belt of moisture being
advected into our region sourced from Florida and Georgia. The
advection of moisture up the East Coast shows up well on GFS`s IVT &
IWV (Integrated Water Vapor Transport & Integrated Water Vapor)
which is a product meant to visualize atmospheric rivers. Overall,
Anomalous to very anomalous PWATs max out around 2.2-2.7" depending
on what model you look at. Exact values aside, ample moisture is
expected to linger over the region Thursday and/or Friday. A stalled
front expected to be over the region will help add lift and provide
the decent chances for rain and/or convection. The problem is
Beryl`s track and timing varies depending on what model you look at.
The belt of moisture seen on global guidance also appears to be very
narrow, so the location of potential heavy rainfall versus scattered
rain and thunderstorms is hard to pinpoint this far out in time. For
now, capped POPs at high-end chance on Thursday and Friday. Timing
and location of rainfall will become better resolved by the models
in the coming days.

Mostly zonal flow aloft is expected this weekend with a stalled
frontal boundary persisting Saturday and possibly dissipating
Sunday, allowing for more sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Temperatures late week into the start of the weekend are expected to
reach the low/mid-80s then return into the mid-80s to low-90s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal system remains stalled near or over the terminals
today through Monday.

VFR for all terminals except KGON which is MVFR. Do expect
continued improvement with a return to VFR by this afternoon.
Guidance has backed off on the fog and low stratus for tonight.
Do expect IFR or lower to move back into KGON tonight, and MVFR
or lower for KISP and KBDR. KJFK will see TEMPO MVFR conditions
between 06-10Z. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty
with how far west the fog and low stratus pushes, with some
guidance bringing KJFK down to LIFR at times. KLGA could also
see MVFR or lower, but it is less likely here.

A S to SE wind at 5-10 kts this this afternoon becomes light
and variable tonight. Monday, winds will again be S to SE 5-10
kts.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty regarding how far west fog/low stratus goes. KJFK
may see prevailing MVFR or lower conditions after 06Z while KLGA
has a lower potential for these conditions.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday PM through Friday: Periods of MVFR OR IFR with
showers/thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Eastern LI Sound, the
ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, and the adjacent bays
through 2 pm. Although conditions have likely improved enough to
cancel the advisory across the Great South Bay and central ocean
waters, satellite imagery confirms that deteriorating conditions
are not that far away. Additionally, the dense fog advisory
might even need to be extended beyond 2pm for some zones.
Episodes of fog and low clouds across the waters will likely continue
through the upcoming week.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the
waters are expected to be below small craft advisory thresholds
to start the week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon, SCA conditions are
expected on ocean waters with waves 4-6 feet, with near SCA gusts
possible on either Thursday or Friday. The rest of the weekend sub-
SCA conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Monday night.

Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching frontal system will
bring a chance of minor/poor drainage flooding as well as potential
localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon/evening to the north
and west of NYC.

A strong band of anomalous moisture may set up along a stalled
front Thursday and/or Friday with the chance for moderate to heavy
rainfall. Confidence in this occurring is still low, but should
become more confident in the coming days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is forecast today at the ocean
beaches with southerly 5-10 kt winds and ocean waves of around
3-4 ft. For Monday, winds remain nearly the same as the previous
day but with ocean seas further subsiding to near 2 to 3 ft,
expect a low rip current risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-340-345-350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...