261
FXUS61 KOKX 171022
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A pre-frontal trough will linger nearby today, followed by a cold
front pushing through late tonight into Thursday morning. The front
slows down and lingers just offshore Thursday as high pressure
slowly builds and settles in on Friday. The high will remain in
control through the weekend, with a weak cold frontal passage
possible late Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
One more hot and very humid day on tap across the region. The main
question is how much cloud cover there will be for the morning and
early afternoon. However, this may not be as much of a factor as it
typically is with regard to the severe weather risk for very late in
the afternoon and evening. With the air mass so anomalously humid,
any breaks of sun will be enough with forcing beginning to increase
late in the day and evening. The limiting factors regarding a
widespread severe weather threat are marginal mid level lapse rates
with some warmer air aloft, and marginal bulk shear. Guidance is
suggestive of 0-6 km shear values of 30, to perhaps 35 kt. Broken
line and multi-cell clusters are the primary expected storm modes.
Although a marginal supercell cannot be ruled out. The main hazard
with any storm will be strong to damaging wind gusts. The Storm
Prediction Center continues with a Slight risk for a good portion of
the area, with only the eastern 3rd of the region (Central and
Eastern LI and Eastern CT) under a marginal risk of severe weather.
There should be no shortage of instability with MLCAPE values likely
to range from 1500 to 2000 j/kg, DCAPE values of 800 to 1000 j/kg,
and LI values of -5 to 8. With respect to timing, convective
allowing models are alluding to 20-21z for convective initiation for
western sections to as late as 0-2z for eastern most sections.

Heat headlines continue for one last day. With dew points mainly in
the lower half of the 70s, and max temperatures expected to reach
close to 90 for CT and Central and Western LI, and lower and middle
90s across the NYC metro, NE NJ and far southern portions of the
Hudson Valley. This should correlate to heat index values of 95 to
100, with some 100 to 105 values across metro NE NJ. These values
could end up slightly lower with enough cloud cover. Overall the
expectation is that skies will average out the be partly cloudy for
the late morning and early afternoon.

The front is expected to slow some and gradually push east tonight.
Once the environment gets worked over and severe convection should
cease with leftover showers and any convection gets stratified. It
will remain muggy overnight with lows in the upper 60s to lower and
middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The real air mass change takes shape during the day Thursday. The
front slowly gets further east across the area, and eventually
offshore for the afternoon. Dew point readings will slowly get into
and fall through the 60s. So still humid, but nearly as oppressive
and muggy. Some clouds will linger, especially further east
throughout the morning. More sun moves through from the later
morning and early afternoon from west to east. Some high clouds will
linger into the afternoon, however skies should average out to be
mostly sunny for the second half of the day on a NW to W flow.
Temperatures will be more seasonable, with daytime maxes in the
middle and upper 80s marking the end of the heat wave.

Clear skies are expected Thursday night with more comfortable
conditions. Dew point readings will get into the more comfortable 55
to 60 range. Most minimum temperatures will be in the 60s.

During Friday look for a good deal of sunshine with high pressure
beginning to settle into the western part of the area. Another
seasonably warm day with mostly middle and upper 80s expected with
light winds due to a weak synoptic pressure gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure settles over the region this weekend with a frontal
boundary remaining south of the region. Temperatures this weekend
will remain in the middle to upper 80s and lower 90s.

Late Sunday into Monday an approaching weakening cold front may pass
through the area, but will likely not result in anything other than
an isolated shower. At the same time, the aforementioned front
stalled offshore will start to make it`s way back north. This front
will return unsettled weather to the area with chances of
showers/thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west this afternoon.

Mainly dry conditions this morning with VFR conditions expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon, this time with a better chance of impacting the NYC
terminals with the approach of a cold front. Will include TEMPOs to
cover the thunderstorm threat this afternoon. Expect MVFR or lower
possible in any storms, along with a threat of gusty winds and heavy
rainfall during any storms. While most of the shower/thunderstorm
activity ends after 02z, there will still be a chance of showers
later at night.

S-SW winds are expected to remain 10kt or less this morning. Winds
increase once again this afternoon to 10-15kt with occasional gusts
into the 20-25kt range during the afternoon. Winds diminish again
tonight to 10kt or less, and start to turn a bit more towards the
west especially late in the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of convection this afternoon may be +/- an hour or so.
Potential that winds gust 40-50 kt in stronger thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: MVFR or lower in possible showers.

Thursday: Chance of showers east of the NYC terminals in the
morning with MVFR possible, otherwise VFR.

Friday through Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will become more widespread over the ocean
waters towards this afternoon and this evening, and continuing
for the western ocean through the first half of Thursday, and
lasting through Thursday afternoon for the more eastern ocean
waters. Sub small craft conditions then return to the ocean
Thursday night into Friday as ocean seas settle closer to 3 ft.

Sub small craft conditions are expected to persist throughout the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any strong thunderstorms for late today through this evening are
capable of producing localized heavy rain resulting in a limited
risk of flash flooding, mainly of the localized urban and poor
drainage variety in any stronger storms. The Weather Prediction
Center has placed the area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
for today and early tonight.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Thursday through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip currents will remain through Thursday with
seas remaining elevated on a SE swell of up to 8 seconds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high minimum temperatures for the next couple of
days:

 ...WED JUL 17...

Newark:        80/1968
Bridgeport:    77/1968
Central Park:  82/1870
LaGuardia:     79/1999
Kennedy:       79/2013*
Islip:         75/2021*

* = also in previous years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>011.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>080-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Thursday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...