Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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944 FXUS64 KOHX 080651 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 151 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Partly cloudy skies are in place this morning. Temperatures are generally in the lower 70s and winds are light. The upcoming short term period through Wednesday will hinge largely on Hurricane Beryl. Currently, Beryle is a cat 1 hurricane and is poised to make land fall in the next few hours along the TX Gulf coast, roughly have way between Corpus and Galveston. He is showing signs of slowing down and is moving to the north northwest at just 10 mph. Moving forward, the storm will move northward and weaken into a depression on Tuesday as it moves across AR. By Wed afternoon the remnants will be centered across western OH. For our area, not too much going on today or tonight. Moisture levels will, however, increase enough to warrant some low chances for afternoon and evening convection. Any activity is not expected to be severe. On Tuesday, a weakening Beryl will be pushing across far western TN and the MO bootheel. Instability does transport northward quite well across our area. Wind energy also increase across our far west. The better lift and organization is across west TN and perhaps could effect our far western zones. Note that there is a marginal risk for our north and west. The severe potential involves damaging winds and being on the right hand side of the tropical system, some low end spinners could perhaps be something to watch out for. I`d say the afternoon and early evening period would be the timeframe for any severe storms. And again, it only looks possible across our west. Conditions will improve by Wednesday. Perhaps some lighter showers and a few tstms could linger. Overall qpf projections through Wednesday look like 1 to 1 1/2 inches in our far northwest, and generally closer to just one half inch elsewhere. Note that a 2-3 inch area lines up from the MO Bootheel ne through Paducah. Gradient wind speeds through the period look rather benign. However, on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, maybe our western areas could see 10-20 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph or so. That`s about it though. For the near term temps, quite warm through Tuesday night with temperatures a few degrees above normal. On Wednesday, only mid 80s or so are slated for highs as clouds persist but we receive a slightly cooler westerly flow, behind Beryl. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 In The extended forecast, the remnants of Beryl will push on off to our north and northeast on Thursday. He will be replaced by a prevailing surface high which will basically maintain its hold through much of the period. The upper levels will feature some modest, but largely apparent, w-e ridging through the deep and mid south. Pops will be included but only to the tune of 20% or so. Cape return looks weak and the late afternoon hours feature a tendency toward subsidence. As for any additional tropical development? Not seeing much of anything at this point. For those extended temperatures, we will start out close to seasonal levels. However, heights are expected to rise through the period as we remain sandwiched between a rather strong rocky mountain upper high as well as another upper high toward our east across Bermuda. So, look for our temps to climb into the mid 90s by next weekend. $$ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV for the taf period. Fog may impact CSV/SRB prior to dawn this morning. Any fog will dissipate by 12-13z. A stray shower or storm could impact BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV this afternoon but chances are too low to include. Winds will be around 5 kts or less through the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 96 75 95 74 / 20 20 60 60 Clarksville 92 73 89 71 / 20 30 70 80 Crossville 90 69 90 69 / 30 10 50 50 Columbia 96 73 95 71 / 20 20 50 50 Cookeville 90 71 90 71 / 20 10 50 60 Jamestown 90 69 89 71 / 20 10 50 50 Lawrenceburg 95 72 94 71 / 20 20 50 50 Murfreesboro 97 73 96 73 / 20 20 50 60 Waverly 92 71 91 68 / 20 40 70 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Reagan