301
FXUS64 KOHX 050659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across the area early this morning. It`s
rather warm with current temps in the 75 to 80 degree range. Today`s
weather is expected to be somewhat active. Surface boundary upstream
is helping to spawn an area of showers and tstms across MO and into
ne AR. This precipitation area is expected to move east and across
our area after sunrise, later this morning. Instability levels are
rather weak so not expecting any strong to severe storms with this
activity. However, as the convection reaches our eastern areas
toward the mid to late morning hours, storms could become a little
stronger with an increasing threat of some reaching strong to
perhaps severe limits. In fact, SPC has shifted the marginal risk
further west and it now includes our northern and central Plateau.
Straight line damaging winds is the sole threat. The short terms
mods don`t really indicate it, but I cannot rule out some isolated
late afternoon development in our east where again a few storms
could become strong to severe. Otw, rainfall amounts through this
afternoon should range from 1/3" to 3/4" for most areas.

Moving on, drier air will start to work in across the region tonight
and especially into Saturday. The low level moisture will take some
time to scour out along the Plateau so could see some areas of fog
there, overnight. But, the upcoming weekend looks rather nice.
Surface high pressure will build in with the upper levels featuring
a rather welcomed broad upper trough. All of this will equate to
much more tolerable temperatures than we`ve been experiencing. After
one more muggy day today, we will see our dewpoints drop into the
lower to mid 60s for this weekend. So though our highs will still be
in the 90F-92F range, the oppressive heat index values will be much
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

In the extended forecast, Hurricane Beryl will be heading toward the
south TX coast with landfall expected just south of Brownsville, as
a cat 1, late Sunday night. The broad upper trough, which was
mentioned earlier, will feature some amplification to our west by
mid week. There is some discrepancy between long range solutions as
to whether the trough will amplify enough so as to pick up some of
Beryl`s remnants and send it our way. Only the GFS appears to
support that scenario. Thus the Euro and NBM solution is a little
drier. Latest fcst builder run does bring convection back into the
picture starting on Monday afternoon with a maximum pop of around
60% for Tuesday. Pops then drop down to 30% or so, reflecting the
model uncertainty as per Beryl. Note that other than Beryl, the
tropics are looking clean.

For the extended temps, not too horrible. Highs will hold in the
lower 90s with dewpoints slowly increasing toward 70F. Overnight
lows look like the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Overall we will see VFR conditions tonight but smoke/fog from
fireworks may bring local MVFR/IFR conditions at times. A line of
showers and thunderstorms will move into the west after 10z and
will work east through 18z. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible
in this line of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will
diminish by the afternoon for western terminals but may linger
through the afternoon for eastern terminals. Light westerly winds
becoming northerly behind the line of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  71  91  69 /  80  10   0   0
Clarksville    88  66  88  66 /  70   0   0   0
Crossville     87  66  85  63 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia       92  68  90  66 /  70  20   0   0
Cookeville     87  68  85  65 /  80  30   0   0
Jamestown      86  66  84  63 /  80  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   91  67  90  65 /  80  30   0   0
Murfreesboro   93  69  91  67 /  80  30   0   0
Waverly        89  66  88  66 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller