013
FXUS64 KOHX 041652
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy 4th of July, Middle Tennessee! A heat advisory remains in
effect through 7pm tonight, so if outdoors today, it is
encouraged to stay hydrated with water, wear light clothing, and
take frequent breaks. Outside of the heat, the Independence day
forecast for storms looks to have improved over the last 24 hours.
We`ve been monitoring a complex of thunderstorms associated with
a shortwave trough across western Kentucky this morning. Those
storms will stay north of Tennessee, however, any outflow
boundaries that may push out from those storms will serve as a
trigger mechanism for scattered thunderstorms to fire along.
Models continue to show ample CAPE across the area this afternoon
with values reaching near 2000 J/kg. This is no surprise with how
hot it is and how warm our dew points temperatures are. The other
parameters of interest are shear and mid-level lapse rates, which
both appear to stay on the lower side today, meaning severe
thunderstorm potential will be limited. So what it comes down to
is we`ll be watching for thunderstorms to pop-up along any
boundaries hanging over the area this afternoon. Any storms that
do develop will have the potential to dump very heavy rain with
PWAT values nearing 2" this afternoon, produce gusty winds and
frequent lightning. As we move into the evening hours,
thunderstorm chances greatly diminish as instability values tank
with loss of daytime heating and any lingering boundaries move out
of the area.


A cold front will push through Friday in response to a deep upper-
level low kicking out that aforementioned shortwave. Rain and
thunderstorm chances will fire back up overnight tonight into the
early morning hours Friday and will become more widespread
across the area as the day progresses. Models aren`t showing much
in the way of severe potential, but an isolated strong storm or
two is possible late morning. The biggest thing with this front is
that it will provide us with a much needed break from the heat.
Increased cloud cover and rain will push temperatures down into
the upper 80s tomorrow with drier air filtering in after frontal
passage Friday evening. Drier air = lower relative humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

We will be on the back side of the trough come Saturday and this
will continue to usher in sinking, cooler air. It will no doubt
still be warm with highs both Saturday and Sunday in the upper
80s for most and low 90s for some, but with the drier air being
present, the feel-like temperature will be much closer to the
actual temperature as dew point temperatures drop back into the
low 60s. As we move into the second week of July, winds will turn
back out of the south Monday due to a trough building in from an
upper-level low over the Midwest. This will bring moisture back
into the area as well as rain and thunderstorm chances. These
chances will stay in the forecast each day next week and will
generally be on the low-to-medium (30-50%) side each day. Models
show our mid-level winds turning westerly during the week and this
will aid in streaming in disturbances throughout the week. As of
now, nothing alarming in terms of severe potential in the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Skies are dry and mostly clear this morning with light south winds
starting to pick up. We should see winds gradually turn out of the
southwest and remain below 10 knots today. This afternoon`s storm
chances are highly uncertain. There is some indication that storms
will be more isolated than previously thought. Left tempo groups
in for the most likely timing of precip this afternoon. Any
activity should taper off by 00z, then another wave of showers may
move into CKV, BNA, and MQY after 06z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      97  77  91  70 /  40  60  90  30
Clarksville    92  75  88  67 /  40  70  60  10
Crossville     90  71  86  65 /  30  40  90  50
Columbia       97  75  91  67 /  30  40  90  30
Cookeville     91  73  85  67 /  30  50  90  50
Jamestown      89  72  84  65 /  40  50  90  50
Lawrenceburg   96  75  90  67 /  30  30  90  40
Murfreesboro   97  76  92  68 /  40  50  90  50
Waverly        94  73  88  67 /  40  70  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Whitehead