Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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086 FXUS64 KOHX 200644 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 144 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Much of the area had tolerable, almost pleasant humidity levels yesterday. Most areas were also rain-free, but there were some scattered showers south and east of BNA. For today, the frontal zone that brought the lower humidity and cooler temps will drift northward across our area. This will mean a return to sticky conditions and a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms area-wide. Not everybody will receive rain, but many will. Generally, the greatest rain chances will be located along the Plateau and the lower chances will be located along the Tennessee river. Some short range models are showing a west to east convergent zone setting up just south of I-40 across the entire coverage area, but we will have to just wait and see if that develops into a band of showers and storms. Otherwise, skies will feature more clouds than sun with high temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s. The pattern for the remainder of the weekend shows weak forcing with the increasingly diffuse frontal zone sitting over the area. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, with greatest coverage during the warmth of the afternoon and early evening hours. Any thunderstorms will produce lightning and brief downpours, but there are no parameters showing significant risk for severe storms or widespread heavy rain potential. Some overnight fog will develop late tonight into Sunday morning. Sunday daytime will be a little more sunny than today with slightly lower shower coverage, so temps will be a couple of degrees warmer for Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The long term forecast features an unsettled pattern with daily chances for showers and storms and slightly below average temperatures. Throughout next week, a trough axis will be positioned just to our west resulting in moist southwest flow into TN. Latest models show the most active wx Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of shortwave troughs help focus moisture and lift across the area. These are the days when coverage of rainfall and localized heavy rainfall potential will be greatest with precipitable water values climbing over 2 inches. The latest WPC 7 day QPF shows 1 to 2 inches of rain likely area-wide, but some areas are sure to see more than that in localized downpours, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Models do not show much if any support for severe storms, but that could change as the more active shortwaves move across the region. Beyond Wednesday, the pattern remains moist and unsettled into next weekend, so daily rain chances will remain in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 CKV low confidence in tstm development thru 21/06Z. Mentioned best 4 hour windows for tstm development with low VFR/MVFR ceiling thresholds and MVFR/IFR vsbys with variable winds and gusts to 25kts possible. Generally went vicinity shwrs 20/18Z-21/05Z. Models trending toward sct shwrs possible before 20/18Z, but confidence not high enough in development to mention currently. Generally light S sfc winds with VFR conditions until 21/03Z. IFR/MVFR vsbys per patchy fog/MVFR ceilings thru 21/06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 72 90 72 / 60 30 40 40 Clarksville 85 68 86 69 / 40 10 30 40 Crossville 79 64 81 64 / 80 40 50 50 Columbia 87 69 88 68 / 70 30 30 30 Cookeville 80 67 83 67 / 80 30 40 40 Jamestown 79 66 82 65 / 80 30 40 40 Lawrenceburg 86 68 87 67 / 70 30 30 40 Murfreesboro 86 70 89 69 / 70 30 40 40 Waverly 86 67 87 68 / 50 10 20 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....JB Wright