182
FXUS64 KOHX 151645
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1145 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

We have already issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon and
again for tomorrow, but mostly for tomorrow. We do expect a few
locations in the advisory area to reach a heat index of 105+
today, but even more so tomorrow. A surface ridge is situated to
our east today, placing us under a southwesterly flow at the
surface. There are some storm chances today mainly along the
Cumberland Plateau, and again for tomorrow. Tomorrow is going to
be the hottest day, because temperatures will start to back down
after tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A strong surface boundary will approach Middle Tennessee from the
northwest late tomorrow night, with storm chances developing by
the overnight period and becoming more widespread on Wednesday.
The boundary will become quasi-stationary over us (yay!) and won`t
completely make it through the mid state until Thursday night or
Friday, but will then come back through as a warm front as it
connects with a low pressure system out west this weekend and the
first part of next week. So we`re about to trade our hot, dry
pattern for a rainier spell with much cooler temperatures. At
this time, we aren`t outlooked for any severe storms. The only
hazardous weather is the Heat Advisory covering this afternoon
and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions continue today. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon near CSV. Otherwise, FEW to SCT high clouds will be
around for most of the day. Winds will be out of the SSW between
5-8 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      99  77 101  77 /  10   0  10  40
Clarksville    95  75  98  75 /   0   0  10  60
Crossville     91  68  92  70 /  30  10  20  50
Columbia       98  74 100  75 /  10   0  10  30
Cookeville     92  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  50
Jamestown      92  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  50
Lawrenceburg   95  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  30
Murfreesboro   98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  30
Waverly        95  74  98  74 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Cheatham-Davidson-
Dickson-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lewis-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Baggett