Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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071 FXUS64 KOHX 040542 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Per current regional radar mosaic trends, some isolated showers/thunderstorms moving across locations approaching TN/KY Border Region as these early evening hours have progressed in association with an upper level shortwave moving initially slowly eastward across mid state region. Believe potential of isolated convection with continue through remainder of evening hours across these locations. Slightly adjusted areal coverage of isolated showers/thunderstorms through remainder of evening hours to address this. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. Current regional temperature trends continuing in line with forecasted overnight low values. Although not depicting robust convective potential, 04/00Z KOHX sounding profile and associated derived indicies depicting enough atmospheric instability and moisture potential to reflect an atmosphere capable of supporting isolated convection. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 **Dangerously hot conditions today and 4th of July** **Heat advisory in effect from 1 PM today through 7 PM Thursday** Temperatures are already in the mid to upper 80s across most of Middle Tennessee this morning with dew point temperatures in the 70s. This is setting the stage for a dangerously hot and uncomfortable afternoon as heat index values are forecast to reach into the 105-110 range. If you must be outdoors today, it is encouraged that you stay hydrated, wear light clothing, and take frequent breaks in order to prevent heat-related illness. The only chance for a break in the heat is if any thunderstorms develop. Rain and thunderstorm chances overall are quite low today as storms will be more of the pop-up variety with a greater chance of them occuring along and north of I-40. With the heat+humidity combo, instability values will reach near 2000 J/kg this afternoon, so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. On the plus side, mid-level lapse rates and shear values are overall low, thus limiting any widespread severe potential. For the 4th of July, heat will be the major concern. With the combination of the air temperature in the mid 90s and humidity as high as it is, heat index values are once again forecast to reach into the 100-110 degree range during the afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm chances do return tomorrow and will likely be more widespread than today thanks to a front that will be stalling out over the area. Still, though, the overall severe threat is limited due to poor lapse rates and lower values of wind shear. Still cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe storm, though. Any stronger storms that do develop will have the potential to produce frequent lightning, very heavy rain, and gusty winds. So be prepared to temporarily move indoors should a storm move over your area tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Models continue to show the majority of thunderstorm activity dwindling down to hardly anything after 7pm tomorrow night. Hopefully this holds so evening outdoor plans can stay on. Rain and thunderstorms will resume overnight ahead of a cold front that will be trekking this way. Friday will likely be our rainiest day as the cold front moves into the area. This is in response to a deep upper-level low that will be moving across the Great Lakes. We will get some relief from the oppressive heat, though, with the rain and clouds. Highs Friday are forecast to be in the upper 80s. As we move into the weekend, the cold front will exit our area Saturday morning, bringing a temporary end to the precip through Sunday. While it will sill be hot, dew point temperatures will thankfully be much cooler (near 10-15 degrees cooler than right now), so the feel-like temperature will be very close to the actual temperature, which will be near 90 degrees. With the arrival of the new week comes a change in our upper-air pattern that will bring us more favorable conditions for rain. This is good news because we will be getting a break from the heat we`ve been dealing with. Rain and thunderstorm chances are in each day next week, but there is no severe potential at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Clear skies and calm winds this morning at all terminals. Scattered storms are expected to develop later today. The best storm potential will be during the afternoon, with CKV, BNA, and MQY having the highest chance of seeing brief drops in visibility and cigs due to storms. Activity is expected to taper off around 00z, leaving VFR conditions overnight tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 96 77 91 70 / 50 40 40 20 Clarksville 92 75 87 67 / 60 60 50 10 Crossville 90 71 87 65 / 40 40 60 60 Columbia 96 75 91 67 / 50 30 30 20 Cookeville 91 73 86 67 / 40 40 40 40 Jamestown 89 72 86 66 / 50 40 50 50 Lawrenceburg 96 75 90 68 / 40 30 30 30 Murfreesboro 97 76 92 69 / 50 40 40 30 Waverly 93 74 88 67 / 60 50 50 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston- Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry- Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Whitehead