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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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216 FXUS64 KOHX 170546 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 All is quiet across the area this evening. It does not feel pleasant with dew points in the low to mid 70s and temperatures in the 80s. The forecast is going to become a bit more uncertain as we head into the overnight and tomorrow. We will have a cold front drop down from the north and that will bring showers and thunderstorms tomorrow evening. The uncertainty is how widespread convection will be mainly ahead of that front tonight and tomorrow afternoon. If cells develop over KY over the next few hours they will push south and then some of our northern counties could get some thunderstorms mainly toward midnight lasting into the overnight. Then tomorrow late morning into the afternoon a short wave that is currently over KS will push east into our area and that will likely bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Finally the front will push into the area during the evening and will bring additional scattered showers and thunderstorms that will last into tomorrow night. Shear will be marginal in the northern part of the area tonight but lapse rates don`t look great. This should limit severe weather but still can`t rule out isolated strong wind gusts and some hail with any of the stronger cells. We should get a break in thunderstorms during the morning and that will help to destabilize the atmosphere some. Shear does look a bit higher tomorrow but still on the lower side for any organized convection. Similar with lapse rates, better than tonight but still not great. Overall the severe threat is low for tomorrow but still can`t rule out gusty winds and some hail with any stronger cells. Heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 There`s been quite a bit of cloud cover around this morning thanks to yesterday`s Midwest MCS. An outflow boundary moved from north to south this morning through the CWA with showers and storms developing along and south of that boundary now from Perry to Warren County. I will let the Heat Advisory limp along but it may be a struggle reaching criteria for most of the area. Visible satellite does show the cirrus thinning from north to south, so a couple locations could get to 95-98 degrees and with dew points in the low to mid 70s, the heat index value could touch 105. One thing we`ll need to watch this afternoon is for storm development along the stationary boundary that is over eastern Missouri into southern Indiana. Some storms could develop along that and move south and eastward toward our northwestern counties. The CAMS have been inconsistent in the development and movement of this activity. If storms do develop and make a run for our area, there will be ample CAPE available and the storms could pose a damaging wind threat. There should be a break in activity overnight before more storms develop on Wednesday with a surface front draped over the area. Shear will still be on the weak side on Wednesday but once again, there will be ample instability. A couple storms may produce gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The surface boundary will linger around the area on Thursday continuing the storms chances across the area. The front will push far enough south Thursday night to bring an end to the storm chances for a day. Friday looks like the nicest day of the forecast with highs in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid 60s. There is a chance of an afternoon shower or storm Friday afternoon but that will be confined along the southern plateau. The front will creep back northwest on Saturday into Sunday bringing back rain chances. Those scattered storm chances continue into next week. Hopefully, most of the area can pick up an inch or two through the next seven days to help put a small dent in this flash drought. As far as temperatures, once we get past this afternoon, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to perhaps to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A slow-moving surface boundary currently situated just to the north of Middle Tennessee will gradually make its way southward during the next several hours, and we can expect widespread convective development during the day Wednesday across the mid state. The best chance for storms overall will be during the afternoon. Look for the activity to taper off somewhat during the evening as winds shift around to the W/NW with the passage of the boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 72 87 65 / 90 60 40 0 Clarksville 86 68 84 61 / 90 30 10 0 Crossville 88 65 80 58 / 90 60 50 10 Columbia 92 70 87 63 / 80 60 20 0 Cookeville 87 68 80 61 / 90 70 40 0 Jamestown 86 66 80 59 / 100 70 40 0 Lawrenceburg 92 70 85 62 / 80 60 20 10 Murfreesboro 93 70 86 63 / 90 70 40 0 Waverly 87 68 84 61 / 90 40 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Rose