Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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155 FXUS64 KOHX 111719 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The temperature and humidity will start creeping up today and each day through the remainder of the forecast. A weak mid level trough will remain to our northwest through Friday evening keeping conditions dry and warm with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s Friday morning, which may be the coolest temperatures we see for the next week. This could help encourage patchy fog early tomorrow morning, especially around bodies of water. As the previously mentioned mid level trough lifts north a weak shortwave will bring a quick shot of showers and storms to western Kentucky during the day on Friday. A few showers could hold together and drift into our northwest counties late Friday, but chances are fairly low for now. If they do make it into Tennessee, they should be quickly decaying. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The weekend looks hot and dry with all eyes on the rising dewpoints and temps. The heat index will work it`s way to 100 by Sunday afternoon west of the Plateau and we`ll only get warmer as the work week begins. There is some model discrepancy on how warm temperatures will get. We should see an increase in moisture Monday through Wednesday, when our national blend wants to push temperatures above 100. This may be a bit too warm considering the climbing dewpoints we`re also expecting, so decided to back off slightly on the high temperatures, but this does NOT mean it won`t be hot. The heat index should approach or possibly exceed 105 degrees by midweek next week. We should see some relief come in the form of scattered showers and storms Wednesday that become more widespread into Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Surface ridging influences along with dry southwesterly flow aloft will support diurnal based sct/bkn VFR CU field development along with some sct/bkn high level cloudiness at times to mid state region thru 12/18Z. Some patchy fog development could be possible reducing vsbys to MVFR/IFR fog induced thresholds CKV 11/09Z-11/13Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 69 91 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 Crossville 63 90 66 90 / 0 10 0 10 Columbia 68 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 66 90 68 92 / 0 10 0 10 Jamestown 64 89 66 90 / 0 10 0 10 Lawrenceburg 66 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 68 96 71 98 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 69 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Whitehead LONG TERM....Whitehead AVIATION.....JB Wright