Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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956 FXUS64 KOHX 120518 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 High pressure is the dominant weather feature across the region, and it`s going to stay that way for the foreseeable future. The atmosphere across Middle Tennessee is quite dry and we`re going to be stuck in a dry, hot pattern until maybe next Wednesday. Fortunately, dew points will stay just low enough to keep us out of heat advisory criteria until probably next Tuesday, in spite of afternoon temperatures reaching the mid and upper 90s for the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The temperature and humidity will start creeping up today and each day through the remainder of the forecast. A weak mid level trough will remain to our northwest through Friday evening keeping conditions dry and warm with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s Friday morning, which may be the coolest temperatures we see for the next week. This could help encourage patchy fog early tomorrow morning, especially around bodies of water. As the previously mentioned mid level trough lifts north a weak shortwave will bring a quick shot of showers and storms to western Kentucky during the day on Friday. A few showers could hold together and drift into our northwest counties late Friday, but chances are fairly low for now. If they do make it into Tennessee, they should be quickly decaying. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The weekend looks hot and dry with all eyes on the rising dewpoints and temps. The heat index will work it`s way to 100 by Sunday afternoon west of the Plateau and we`ll only get warmer as the work week begins. There is some model discrepancy on how warm temperatures will get. We should see an increase in moisture Monday through Wednesday, when our national blend wants to push temperatures above 100. This may be a bit too warm considering the climbing dewpoints we`re also expecting, so decided to back off slightly on the high temperatures, but this does NOT mean it won`t be hot. The heat index should approach or possibly exceed 105 degrees by midweek next week. We should see some relief come in the form of scattered showers and storms Wednesday that become more widespread into Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Other than some transient fog at SRB for the rest of the overnight hours, all Middle Tennessee terminals are expected to be VFR for the taf period. Winds at CKV/BNA/MQY are expected to be northerly around 5-8 kts this afternoon before decrease below 5 kts this evening. Winds at CSV/SRB will be out of the WNW/NW around 5 kts or less for the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 96 74 98 74 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 92 71 94 72 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 90 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 96 70 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 90 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 89 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 95 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 96 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 93 70 95 72 / 10 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Whitehead LONG TERM....Whitehead AVIATION.....Reagan